{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed4f479e-8ad4-414d-954a-abd51dda0a44", "symbol": "SOLB", "name": "Solvay SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.751, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.058, "architecture_energy": 28.143, "architecture_maturity": 21.318, "architecture_confidence": 45.279, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.49, "rotation_up": 39.04, "upward_expansion": 66.58, "deceleration": 67.83, "rotation_down": 23.3, "downward_expansion": 6.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.492, 26.488, 26.316127, 26.076269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.92, "trend_reference": 25.737489, "distance_from_trend": 0.045945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.535569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097183, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.796101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072463, "excess_performance": -0.101784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045945, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097183, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030652, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072463, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 4.08377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034883, "annualized_volatility": 0.237678, "from_high_reference": -0.034433, "from_low_reference": 0.198848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.737489, "fair_value_reference": 24.535569, "structural_low": 22.454898, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.022265, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.022941, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.198611, "worst_return": -0.065522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.046587, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.066287, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.352338, "worst_return": -0.044444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.192478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.174892, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.367905, "worst_return": -0.040816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004662, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025133, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.054994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 39.75, "trend": 14.190881, "fair_value": 10.242278, "relative_strength": 20.228148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.139004, "energy": 16.730295, "activity_lines": [ 26.269334, 26.369818, 26.125366, 25.891951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.26, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.0, "trend": 25.606645, "fair_value": 24.393867, "relative_strength": -14.374072, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.216035, "energy": 16.698445, "activity_lines": [ 26.186667, 26.370546, 26.168861, 25.937552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.5, "volume": 1248, "typical_volume": 76.4, "trend": 25.663245, "fair_value": 24.461233, "relative_strength": -13.072981, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.615965, "energy": 16.435845, "activity_lines": [ 26.265333, 26.394182, 26.226365, 25.995188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.4, "trend": 25.737489, "fair_value": 24.535569, "relative_strength": -13.796101, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.057758, "energy": 28.142738, "activity_lines": [ 26.492, 26.488, 26.316127, 26.076269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }