{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed5d1435-3c44-41cd-94cb-c277d1a7c57b", "symbol": "QQQP", "name": "TRADR 2X LONG INNOVATION 100 QUARTERLY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.414, "architecture_energy": 22.752, "architecture_maturity": 73.176, "architecture_confidence": 92.19, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.04, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 50.76, "deceleration": 82.24, "rotation_down": 36.51, "downward_expansion": 28.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 210.73208, 214.351027, 214.429669, 205.065691 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 223.3486, "trend_reference": 193.844743, "distance_from_trend": 0.152204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 159.884908, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.928214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.305827, "excess_performance": 0.118373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.305827, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.508149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15632, "relative_activity": 1.340054, "balance": 1.508149, "dry_up": 1.440695, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073997, "annualized_volatility": 0.386042, "from_high_reference": -0.068605, "from_low_reference": 0.598201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.844743, "fair_value_reference": 159.884908, "structural_low": 139.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122965, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 124.718, "volume": 67442, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.915048, "energy": 46.717311, "activity_lines": [ 223.753873, 223.787811, 211.369544, 200.782726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 207.1077, "volume": 8379, "typical_volume": 10256.9, "trend": 190.92975, "fair_value": 158.348056, "relative_strength": 3.647335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.540884, "energy": 29.637469, "activity_lines": [ 217.844393, 220.821682, 212.331742, 201.891955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 198.8918, "volume": 18896, "typical_volume": 10446.9, "trend": 191.53803, "fair_value": 158.774833, "relative_strength": 1.027206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.52631, "energy": 22.093814, "activity_lines": [ 210.42078, 216.614875, 212.331436, 202.405636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.8784, "volume": 24317, "typical_volume": 10991.6, "trend": 192.458123, "fair_value": 159.223828, "relative_strength": 1.799761, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.396845, "energy": 21.606057, "activity_lines": [ 206.434053, 213.328489, 212.455017, 203.072757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 223.3486, "volume": 15632, "typical_volume": 11665.2, "trend": 193.844743, "fair_value": 159.884908, "relative_strength": 6.928214, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.413771, "energy": 22.752365, "activity_lines": [ 210.73208, 214.351027, 214.429669, 205.065691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }