{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed65f152-b7f8-49fc-ad67-2ed6b8810c54", "symbol": "HERMA", "name": "Hermana Holding ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.166, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.91, "architecture_energy": 25.793, "architecture_maturity": 35.427, "architecture_confidence": 90.391, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.38, "rotation_up": 22.06, "upward_expansion": 2.2, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 44.15, "downward_expansion": 75.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.4, 15.465455, 15.727857, 16.064516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.0, "trend_reference": 16.511667, "distance_from_trend": -0.091551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.479259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.701161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.29166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2842, "relative_activity": 0.218377, "balance": 0.630281, "dry_up": 0.342357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109744, "annualized_volatility": 0.251358, "from_high_reference": -0.173554, "from_low_reference": 0.287554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.511667, "fair_value_reference": 14.479259, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.017685, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026158, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.03537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.945741, "energy": 31.88223, "activity_lines": [ 15.413333, 15.585455, 16.010476, 16.338172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.8, "volume": 9658, "typical_volume": 21193.95, "trend": 16.596667, "fair_value": 14.453, "relative_strength": -7.322975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.67645, "energy": 29.03083, "activity_lines": [ 15.486667, 15.591818, 15.953571, 16.286344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.8, "volume": 3086, "typical_volume": 16659.6, "trend": 16.59, "fair_value": 14.465245, "relative_strength": -9.561836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.268786, "energy": 27.02674, "activity_lines": [ 15.543333, 15.607273, 15.904762, 16.234946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.5, "volume": 2236, "typical_volume": 14445.55, "trend": 16.551667, "fair_value": 14.474567, "relative_strength": -11.66143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.644942, "energy": 24.431015, "activity_lines": [ 15.54, 15.568182, 15.835476, 16.164624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.0, "volume": 2842, "typical_volume": 13014.2, "trend": 16.511667, "fair_value": 14.479259, "relative_strength": -14.701161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.910185, "energy": 25.792616, "activity_lines": [ 15.4, 15.465455, 15.727857, 16.064516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }