{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed68f054-113c-4eb0-b23e-49d5d1d0b3b7", "symbol": "301031", "name": "Xi'an Sinofuse Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.3, "architecture_energy": 84.636, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.652, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 9.01, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 78.78, "downward_expansion": 96.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.895999, 93.851453, 115.503919, 124.143256 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 87.82, "trend_reference": 131.616803, "distance_from_trend": -0.33276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 88.054472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.030819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.385831, "excess_performance": -0.393231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.33276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.813411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442098, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.385831, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14359001, "relative_activity": 0.996792, "balance": 1.087899, "dry_up": 1.346621, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215225, "annualized_volatility": 0.845056, "from_high_reference": -0.528326, "from_low_reference": 0.219214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.616803, "fair_value_reference": 88.054472, "structural_low": 72.029999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.013969, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.004303, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.341213, "worst_return": -0.165049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046543, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053308, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.533849, "worst_return": -0.321219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.145927, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058999, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.057195, "worst_return": -0.200652, "sufficient": false 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"relative_strength": -34.73687, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.930247, "energy": 87.453277, "activity_lines": [ 100.209332, 114.405982, 130.274312, 134.010272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.449997, "volume": 20456690, "typical_volume": 14427263.15, "trend": 133.544137, "fair_value": 88.137799, "relative_strength": -32.105718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.912428, "energy": 87.138176, "activity_lines": [ 91.524665, 105.637475, 124.958197, 130.598306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.099998, "volume": 13757691, "typical_volume": 14267044.7, "trend": 132.429137, "fair_value": 88.055259, "relative_strength": -33.69501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.735176, "energy": 89.970316, "activity_lines": [ 84.945998, 97.956339, 119.625701, 127.021265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.82, "volume": 14359001, "typical_volume": 14405206.4, "trend": 131.616803, "fair_value": 88.054472, "relative_strength": -29.030819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.299932, "energy": 84.635914, "activity_lines": [ 83.895999, 93.851453, 115.503919, 124.143256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }