{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed69c994-20c7-4d82-a24e-3bcc5fe4636f", "symbol": "003042", "name": "Shandong Sino-Agri United Biotechnology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.719, "architecture_energy": 58.936, "architecture_maturity": 78.829, "architecture_confidence": 95.881, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 10.87, "deceleration": 60.84, "rotation_down": 53.74, "downward_expansion": 84.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.42, 12.528909, 13.675476, 14.68443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.05, "trend_reference": 15.886, "distance_from_trend": -0.178522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.91609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.736435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.365889, "excess_performance": -0.373289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180075, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.365889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18794335, "relative_activity": 0.93075, "balance": 0.299217, "dry_up": 0.84975, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087062, "annualized_volatility": 0.387644, "from_high_reference": -0.533095, "from_low_reference": 0.182065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.886, "fair_value_reference": 15.91609, "structural_low": 11.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.028596, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.005322, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.21968, "worst_return": -0.151682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080567, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.030583, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.580475, "worst_return": -0.180836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088773, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024094, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.294669, "worst_return": -0.248918, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.169727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.201342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", 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16.111, "fair_value": 16.02609, "relative_strength": -31.003992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.299507, "energy": 87.575466, "activity_lines": [ 12.095333, 12.666909, 14.121524, 15.109419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.46, "volume": 16368439, "typical_volume": 20698748.85, "trend": 15.986333, "fair_value": 15.968397, "relative_strength": -23.091216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.872515, "energy": 65.100368, "activity_lines": [ 12.162667, 12.511273, 13.856381, 14.873871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.05, "volume": 18794335, "typical_volume": 20192668.65, "trend": 15.886, "fair_value": 15.91609, "relative_strength": -22.736435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.718523, "energy": 58.935546, "activity_lines": [ 12.42, 12.528909, 13.675476, 14.68443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }