{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed6a0cd5-7d8b-4dc4-97ee-c50bd2e411b6", "symbol": "THR", "name": "Thor Energy Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.713, "architecture_energy": 48.95, "architecture_maturity": 16.923, "architecture_confidence": 93.801, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 9.18, "deceleration": 40.55, "rotation_down": 65.44, "downward_expansion": 87.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005217, 0.005409, 0.005761, 0.005841 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.005963, "distance_from_trend": -0.161543, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.008846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.131065, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130435, "excess_performance": -0.18167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434742, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110213, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.008016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3730452, "relative_activity": 1.120495, "balance": 0.008016, "dry_up": 0.706496, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208923, "annualized_volatility": 0.363537, "from_high_reference": -0.444444, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005963, "fair_value_reference": 0.008846, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.477273, "median_excess_return": -0.027594, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.516129, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.094054, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.392157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.269697, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.31286, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.074074, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.012193, "energy": 24.621338, "activity_lines": [ 0.005617, 0.005795, 0.005985, 0.005994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00525, "volume": 3675664, "typical_volume": 3166022.95, "trend": 0.005955, "fair_value": 0.009091, "relative_strength": -17.33741, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.608832, "energy": 38.567243, "activity_lines": [ 0.005467, 0.005655, 0.005916, 0.005949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00525, "volume": 1677864, "typical_volume": 3228358.0, "trend": 0.005963, "fair_value": 0.008958, "relative_strength": -18.232395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.283766, "energy": 42.333194, "activity_lines": [ 0.005367, 0.005541, 0.00585, 0.005903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 3730452, "typical_volume": 3329287.95, "trend": 0.005963, "fair_value": 0.008846, "relative_strength": -22.131065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.712549, "energy": 48.949569, "activity_lines": [ 0.005217, 0.005409, 0.005761, 0.005841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }