{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed6a5d82-45c8-4c5b-8643-ce6afb088997", "symbol": "600170", "name": "Shanghai Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.895, "architecture_energy": 40.948, "architecture_maturity": 93.924, "architecture_confidence": 85.839, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.73, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 34.58, "downward_expansion": 64.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.318, 2.303477, 2.389192, 2.492594 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.31, "trend_reference": 2.627753, "distance_from_trend": -0.120922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.473223, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.278091, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224832, "excess_performance": -0.181628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065996, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 644070818, "relative_activity": 1.246002, "balance": 0.551249, "dry_up": 1.236622, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05133, "annualized_volatility": 0.202219, "from_high_reference": -0.404639, "from_low_reference": 0.052468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.627753, "fair_value_reference": 2.473223, "structural_low": 2.194842, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.00738, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005102, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.262887, "worst_return": -0.141593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.013256, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035497, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.450777, "worst_return": -0.11446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018027, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.284722, "worst_return": -0.112836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 2.66242, "fair_value": 2.477429, "relative_strength": -10.975238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.207692, "energy": 79.246038, "activity_lines": [ 2.264811, 2.317084, 2.4498, 2.555234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.3, "volume": 649374268, "typical_volume": 601779244.05, "trend": 2.64942, "fair_value": 2.476016, "relative_strength": -11.201421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.272257, "energy": 62.175175, "activity_lines": [ 2.275656, 2.303116, 2.424121, 2.531852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 554579666, "typical_volume": 542192126.95, "trend": 2.639086, "fair_value": 2.474872, "relative_strength": -8.773245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.643558, "energy": 47.88843, "activity_lines": [ 2.312667, 2.30748, 2.407966, 2.513825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.31, "volume": 644070818, "typical_volume": 516909929.2, "trend": 2.627753, "fair_value": 2.473223, "relative_strength": -13.278091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.894983, "energy": 40.947844, "activity_lines": [ 2.318, 2.303477, 2.389192, 2.492594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }