{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed6c3f7f-6fcb-4740-a044-e275cd0d6c45", "symbol": "ABNB", "name": "Airbnb\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.435, "architecture_energy": 76.679, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.138, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 75.62, "upward_expansion": 88.31, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 10.91, "downward_expansion": 14.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.354, 151.617818, 145.173667, 141.234538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 178.07, "trend_reference": 136.586, "distance_from_trend": 0.303721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 134.983013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319203, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.111896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.45744, "excess_performance": 0.269986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.303721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319203, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.261695, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181119, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.276207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.45744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.352655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33213815, "relative_activity": 1.81689, "balance": 1.352655, "dry_up": 1.176774, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063536, "annualized_volatility": 0.343638, "from_high_reference": -0.002297, "from_low_reference": 0.606985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.586, "fair_value_reference": 134.983013, "structural_low": 115.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.019041, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.016439, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.196395, "worst_return": -0.23888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068504, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089124, "worst_return": -0.145087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.155129, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.269743, "worst_return": -0.225003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": 59.258873, "energy": 67.914746, "activity_lines": [ 146.98, 142.822545, 139.515095, 136.964301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 141.1, "volume": 13907967, "typical_volume": 17500031.05, "trend": 134.675667, "fair_value": 134.625705, "relative_strength": -0.891421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.289131, "energy": 53.410329, "activity_lines": [ 145.246667, 143.098364, 139.961857, 137.387978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.52, "volume": 19118969, "typical_volume": 17596033.5, "trend": 135.292667, "fair_value": 134.698462, "relative_strength": 5.960998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.586653, "energy": 46.023694, "activity_lines": [ 147.074, 145.118727, 141.363524, 138.47471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.07, "volume": 33213815, "typical_volume": 18280582.95, "trend": 136.586, "fair_value": 134.983013, "relative_strength": 18.111896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.434955, "energy": 76.67852, "activity_lines": [ 157.354, 151.617818, 145.173667, 141.234538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }