{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed6c4df0-522f-4005-98e5-d84e54522f61", "symbol": "CFM", "name": "CrowdFundMe S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.182, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.636, "architecture_energy": 26.345, "architecture_maturity": 15.393, "architecture_confidence": 66.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.62, "rotation_up": 13.36, "upward_expansion": 12.16, "deceleration": 55.83, "rotation_down": 60.23, "downward_expansion": 68.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.102, 1.123091, 1.124048, 1.120409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.1, "trend_reference": 1.127667, "distance_from_trend": -0.024534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.618782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320477, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.405972, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067797, "excess_performance": -0.238688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.441176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8400, "relative_activity": 0.936455, "balance": 5.441176, "dry_up": 1.814381, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073427, "annualized_volatility": 0.278167, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.145833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.127667, "fair_value_reference": 1.618782, "structural_low": 0.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.0171, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.029042, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.02459, "worst_return": -0.062016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.062042, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.085582, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.032258, "worst_return": -0.184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.109647, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.184813, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.008065, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.07265, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.297128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.056452, "worst_return": -0.184685, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064356, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.336842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.16, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 10507.5, "trend": 2.603, "fair_value": 3.964679, "relative_strength": -35.164302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.263302, "energy": 30.888668, "activity_lines": [ 1.173333, 1.144909, 1.118095, 1.130086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.14, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 4860.0, "trend": 1.15, "fair_value": 1.656282, "relative_strength": -17.043715, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.089165, "energy": 33.207716, "activity_lines": [ 1.165333, 1.148, 1.119952, 1.129269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.17, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4695.0, "trend": 1.148333, "fair_value": 1.650705, "relative_strength": -16.789536, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.131518, "energy": 25.073758, "activity_lines": [ 1.166, 1.155091, 1.124857, 1.130559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.17, "volume": 30750, "typical_volume": 6157.5, "trend": 1.146667, "fair_value": 1.645385, "relative_strength": -15.936859, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.830013, "energy": 12.382135, "activity_lines": [ 1.164667, 1.161091, 1.129952, 1.131957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.08, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 6667.5, "trend": 1.142333, "fair_value": 1.639808, "relative_strength": -20.706658, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.725248, "energy": 12.404597, "activity_lines": [ 1.134, 1.148727, 1.126476, 1.127656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.1, "volume": 25800, "typical_volume": 7957.5, "trend": 1.137333, "fair_value": 1.632372, "relative_strength": -18.549212, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.722986, "energy": 10.087393, "activity_lines": [ 1.120667, 1.140182, 1.125333, 1.124925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 20700, "typical_volume": 8992.5, "trend": 1.132667, "fair_value": 1.625577, "relative_strength": -18.529818, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.860357, "energy": 19.827139, "activity_lines": [ 1.11, 1.131455, 1.124524, 1.122516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.1, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 8970.0, "trend": 1.127667, "fair_value": 1.618782, "relative_strength": -20.405972, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.636272, "energy": 26.345374, "activity_lines": [ 1.102, 1.123091, 1.124048, 1.120409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }