{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ed6e3dd4-b158-4e6a-ac74-bf97add56b38",
    "symbol": "OFIX",
    "name": "Orthofix Medical Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -21.244,
    "architecture_energy": 15.697,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.272,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.926,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.86,
        "rotation_up": 37.17,
        "upward_expansion": 33.74,
        "deceleration": 43.9,
        "rotation_down": 23.55,
        "downward_expansion": 42.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        11.142667,
        10.834909,
        10.818333,
        11.149978
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.28,
    "trend_reference": 11.717667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.122692,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 14.084263,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270107,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -32.269902,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.196875,
    "excess_performance": -0.384329,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.122692,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121592,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.270107,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.056695,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.322699,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052902,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.196875,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.962329,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3266242,
      "relative_activity": 1.781053,
      "balance": 0.962329,
      "dry_up": 1.031474,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.141937,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.501416,
      "from_high_reference": -0.394938,
      "from_low_reference": 0.161582
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.717667,
      "fair_value_reference": 14.084263,
      "structural_low": 8.85,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": -0.027023,
        "positive_rate": 0.45,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.45,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020371,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.273829,
        "worst_return": -0.285244,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.137023,
        "positive_rate": 0.3,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.3,
        "median_excess_return": -0.152249,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.180153,
        "worst_return": -0.444674,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.156396,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.288893,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.155311,
        "worst_return": -0.331774,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.264911,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.405292,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.245421,
        "worst_return": -0.542516,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.072078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.269457,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03042,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.048991,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.066093,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030886,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.148817,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.039908,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.002108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.047809,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.058363,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.057031,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.108558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.128814,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1071745.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 12.264667,
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        "relative_strength": -24.732704,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -37.490224,
        "energy": 28.157176,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 11.58,
        "volume": 1364421,
        "typical_volume": 1757839.2,
        "trend": 12.135333,
        "fair_value": 14.240481,
        "relative_strength": -21.636787,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.20492,
        "energy": 18.394714,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.883333,
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          10.831619,
          11.324731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 11.25,
        "volume": 1499574,
        "typical_volume": 1745297.15,
        "trend": 12.002333,
        "fair_value": 14.188622,
        "relative_strength": -22.386983,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.108342,
        "energy": 21.378605,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.141333,
          10.594,
          10.836333,
          11.267613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.8,
        "volume": 1436174,
        "typical_volume": 1748784.0,
        "trend": 11.901,
        "fair_value": 14.146058,
        "relative_strength": -18.863291,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -9.560755,
        "energy": 20.300386,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.462667,
          10.862182,
          10.899952,
          11.254559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.28,
        "volume": 3266242,
        "typical_volume": 1833882.6,
        "trend": 11.717667,
        "fair_value": 14.084263,
        "relative_strength": -32.269902,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.243935,
        "energy": 15.697021,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.142667,
          10.834909,
          10.818333,
          11.149978
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}