{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed718e11-e501-4834-8ff7-4aa2a43bc0f6", "symbol": "HTUS", "name": "HULL TACTICAL US ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.868, "architecture_energy": 50.992, "architecture_maturity": 50.505, "architecture_confidence": 80.48, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.97, "rotation_up": 55.52, "upward_expansion": 79.91, "deceleration": 61.83, "rotation_down": 24.06, "downward_expansion": 6.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.515333, 44.180573, 43.670913, 42.734591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.8943, "trend_reference": 41.64708, "distance_from_trend": 0.101981, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.095104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.746666, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142986, "excess_performance": 0.017361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101981, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020464, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017467, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011202, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142986, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.801109, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57404, "relative_activity": 0.869622, "balance": 2.801109, "dry_up": 0.985244, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032187, "annualized_volatility": 0.140853, "from_high_reference": -0.049807, "from_low_reference": 0.262418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.64708, "fair_value_reference": 34.095104, "structural_low": 36.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.009262, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.001715, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.066107, "worst_return": -0.084537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.040918, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.000115, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.17117, "worst_return": -0.051425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.087872, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.000114, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.151398, "worst_return": -0.115962, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 41.30582, "fair_value": 33.840783, "relative_strength": 0.845175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.06867, "energy": 40.495929, "activity_lines": [ 43.754567, 43.751378, 43.144479, 42.273366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.01, "volume": 83992, "typical_volume": 73975.8, "trend": 41.449487, "fair_value": 33.961663, "relative_strength": 1.041588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.502725, "energy": 39.024056, "activity_lines": [ 43.846733, 43.797615, 43.330991, 42.447829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.8943, "volume": 57404, "typical_volume": 66010.3, "trend": 41.64708, "fair_value": 34.095104, "relative_strength": 1.746666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.867953, "energy": 50.991924, "activity_lines": [ 44.515333, 44.180573, 43.670913, 42.734591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }