{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed73bc42-d0c0-4a18-98b6-2e8baf88c534", "symbol": "WDSC", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.401, "architecture_energy": 43.347, "architecture_maturity": 45.983, "architecture_confidence": 88.635, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.28, "rotation_up": 40.57, "upward_expansion": 70.09, "deceleration": 93.46, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 10.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.381669, 147.357548, 145.940883, 143.520173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 150.919998, "trend_reference": 140.8425, "distance_from_trend": 0.071552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.128526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.951753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095648, "excess_performance": 0.044412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071552, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050439, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004664, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.419476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12255, "relative_activity": 0.786109, "balance": 1.419476, "dry_up": 1.452986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023568, "annualized_volatility": 0.15397, "from_high_reference": -0.003236, "from_low_reference": 0.291349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.8425, "fair_value_reference": 113.128526, "structural_low": 124.860001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.035649, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.013806, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.113456, "worst_return": -0.072008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069951, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03418, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.154922, "worst_return": -0.02182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.093187, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085454, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.187436, "worst_return": 0.06898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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147.037002, 143.854525, 141.613463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.410004, "volume": 6704, "typical_volume": 14552.1, "trend": 139.178334, "fair_value": 112.125288, "relative_strength": 3.348847, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.06727, "energy": 49.534609, "activity_lines": [ 147.175003, 146.918912, 144.307668, 142.051377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 146.285004, "volume": 59860, "typical_volume": 16663.0, "trend": 139.735167, "fair_value": 112.445064, "relative_strength": 2.553041, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.251148, "energy": 39.919276, "activity_lines": [ 146.76367, 146.94173, 144.818621, 142.509872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.740005, "volume": 11786, "typical_volume": 15923.35, "trend": 140.265167, "fair_value": 112.761699, "relative_strength": 0.132729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.385349, "energy": 28.146455, "activity_lines": [ 145.935337, 146.59664, 145.121145, 142.832765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.919998, "volume": 12255, "typical_volume": 15589.45, "trend": 140.8425, "fair_value": 113.128526, "relative_strength": 3.951753, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.401091, "energy": 43.347003, "activity_lines": [ 147.381669, 147.357548, 145.940883, 143.520173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }