{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed93638e-fdcd-4063-bfd5-19ac72c35449", "symbol": "ONCO", "name": "Oncopeptides AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.827, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.156, "architecture_energy": 19.21, "architecture_maturity": 43.928, "architecture_confidence": 70.276, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.0, "rotation_up": 17.76, "upward_expansion": 11.21, "deceleration": 66.15, "rotation_down": 38.04, "downward_expansion": 56.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.596667, 1.617345, 1.602305, 1.625097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.602, "trend_reference": 1.8231, "distance_from_trend": -0.121277, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.66535, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.562934, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -56.744881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.421661, "excess_performance": -0.483155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.562934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1382, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.567449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5585465, "relative_activity": 0.273649, "balance": 1.242148, "dry_up": 0.270833, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13608, "annualized_volatility": 0.910704, "from_high_reference": -0.75542, "from_low_reference": 0.276494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.8231, "fair_value_reference": 3.66535, "structural_low": 1.255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.216518, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217628, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.025532, "worst_return": -0.637159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.641904, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.729376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.412672, "worst_return": -0.706897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.196221, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.344657, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.516253, "worst_return": -0.687931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006803, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.354795, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -57.522789, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.974586, "energy": 21.481399, "activity_lines": [ 1.614733, 1.642709, 1.593143, 1.674764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.582, "volume": 6711786, "typical_volume": 21234959.05, "trend": 1.922034, "fair_value": 3.705645, "relative_strength": -57.450732, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.629886, "energy": 22.458064, "activity_lines": [ 1.600267, 1.627727, 1.596848, 1.645744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.602, "volume": 5585465, "typical_volume": 20411031.4, "trend": 1.8231, "fair_value": 3.66535, "relative_strength": -56.744881, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.155971, "energy": 19.210393, "activity_lines": [ 1.596667, 1.617345, 1.602305, 1.625097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }