{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed9ee731-47ee-4c90-a866-1f4f0a5ee068", "symbol": "000062", "name": "Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.095, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.625, "architecture_energy": 63.538, "architecture_maturity": 17.246, "architecture_confidence": 68.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.72, "rotation_up": 18.87, "upward_expansion": 24.67, "deceleration": 40.29, "rotation_down": 66.92, "downward_expansion": 59.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.073334, 25.780182, 28.455274, 28.51821 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.42, "trend_reference": 28.067421, "distance_from_trend": -0.165581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.650533, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.863385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103288, "excess_performance": -0.110688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165581, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.718974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248832, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103288, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.027543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142900149, "relative_activity": 0.627706, "balance": 1.027543, "dry_up": 0.649984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190534, "annualized_volatility": 0.79607, "from_high_reference": -0.416397, "from_low_reference": 0.140214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.067421, "fair_value_reference": 20.650533, "structural_low": 20.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035575, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012701, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.125828, "worst_return": -0.118017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0396, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17597, "worst_return": -0.125569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063152, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.082737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317971, "worst_return": -0.17129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.070378, 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"end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040219, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028798, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"direction": -12.663403, "energy": 15.985329, "activity_lines": [ 28.468667, 29.741091, 30.610298, 29.664771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.610001, "volume": 143945768, "typical_volume": 232497610.7, "trend": 28.196224, "fair_value": 20.500469, "relative_strength": -22.279949, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.958351, "energy": 47.236506, "activity_lines": [ 25.786, 28.095637, 29.816389, 29.234427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 111207644, "typical_volume": 230984548.6, "trend": 28.105154, "fair_value": 20.569519, "relative_strength": -19.984656, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.369946, "energy": 59.44406, "activity_lines": [ 23.856667, 26.672, 29.047361, 28.820478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.42, "volume": 142900149, "typical_volume": 227654412.85, "trend": 28.067421, "fair_value": 20.650533, "relative_strength": -17.863385, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.625141, "energy": 63.537817, "activity_lines": [ 23.073334, 25.780182, 28.455274, 28.51821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }