{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed9f4b43-f7fc-4286-b313-a472e71a6805", "symbol": "IEDY", "name": "iShares EM Dividend UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.057, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.635, "architecture_energy": 72.519, "architecture_maturity": 5.131, "architecture_confidence": 67.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.67, "rotation_up": 78.08, "upward_expansion": 90.31, "deceleration": 42.24, "rotation_down": 11.06, "downward_expansion": 16.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.4168, 15.207766, 15.101629, 15.073191 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.592, "trend_reference": 15.00479, "distance_from_trend": 0.039135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.576305, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.072639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04887, "excess_performance": -0.034013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.651254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15509, "relative_activity": 0.582221, "balance": 2.651254, "dry_up": 1.424872, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022029, "annualized_volatility": 0.12273, "from_high_reference": -0.062337, "from_low_reference": 0.224638 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.00479, "fair_value_reference": 12.576305, "structural_low": 14.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.004391, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.009091, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.073567, "worst_return": -0.176407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.052151, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.002427, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.095374, "worst_return": -0.195467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036428, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.015065, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.162221, "worst_return": -0.301721, "sufficient": true }, { 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.160078, "energy": 6.844635, "activity_lines": [ 14.81301, 14.845127, 14.959926, 14.922843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.02, "volume": 23085, "typical_volume": 23367.5, "trend": 14.799809, "fair_value": 12.437532, "relative_strength": -3.558932, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.017419, "energy": 14.096851, "activity_lines": [ 14.862297, 14.870968, 14.961562, 14.940045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.054, "volume": 72191, "typical_volume": 25594.3, "trend": 14.843553, "fair_value": 12.470668, "relative_strength": -4.076144, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.090555, "energy": 16.46031, "activity_lines": [ 14.911333, 14.901942, 14.966303, 14.956445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.556, "volume": 41201, "typical_volume": 26994.5, "trend": 14.906145, "fair_value": 12.505033, "relative_strength": -0.81703, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.466106, "energy": 41.536452, "activity_lines": [ 15.136267, 15.025916, 15.019165, 15.002409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.374, "volume": 22920, "typical_volume": 26982.4, "trend": 14.962736, "fair_value": 12.539497, "relative_strength": -2.121743, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.332658, "energy": 53.429136, "activity_lines": [ 15.2664, 15.102214, 15.051227, 15.032593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.592, "volume": 15509, "typical_volume": 26637.65, "trend": 15.00479, "fair_value": 12.576305, "relative_strength": -2.072639, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.634879, "energy": 72.519345, "activity_lines": [ 15.4168, 15.207766, 15.101629, 15.073191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }