{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eda9672f-6366-4675-86b8-2a119713b3cb", "symbol": "TAL", "name": "TAL Education Group", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.814, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.884, "architecture_energy": 61.597, "architecture_maturity": 15.189, "architecture_confidence": 74.839, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.59, "rotation_up": 68.4, "upward_expansion": 48.56, "deceleration": 25.4, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 25.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.572667, 10.815636, 10.543905, 10.657333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.38, "trend_reference": 10.861, "distance_from_trend": 0.139858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.816859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14451, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.1263, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008807, "excess_performance": -0.134432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139858, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14451, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087977, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001263, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110123, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32190650, "relative_activity": 1.719381, "balance": 0.627202, "dry_up": 1.404289, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068252, "annualized_volatility": 0.464971, "from_high_reference": -0.074046, "from_low_reference": 0.39493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.861, "fair_value_reference": 10.816859, "structural_low": 8.875, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011703, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010476, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.219545, "worst_return": -0.052023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.203704, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.227355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.453883, "worst_return": -0.049133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.283981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.306913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469577, "worst_return": -0.055877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 13359188, "typical_volume": 16699556.45, "trend": 10.785, "fair_value": 10.749744, "relative_strength": -13.111105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.027009, "energy": 24.498358, "activity_lines": [ 10.166, 9.891818, 10.182333, 10.445957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 42235602, "typical_volume": 17879037.15, "trend": 10.818667, "fair_value": 10.78141, "relative_strength": 4.375649, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.606706, "energy": 38.618336, "activity_lines": [ 10.99, 10.389455, 10.372095, 10.556602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.38, "volume": 32190650, "typical_volume": 18722233.35, "trend": 10.861, "fair_value": 10.816859, "relative_strength": 0.1263, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.883686, "energy": 61.59668, "activity_lines": [ 11.572667, 10.815636, 10.543905, 10.657333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }