{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "edaa9c60-eebe-4965-93aa-452eb53c58ca",
    "symbol": "IAU",
    "name": "ISHARES GOLD TRUST ISHARES NEW (POST REV SPLIT)",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 70.149,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -51.632,
    "architecture_energy": 42.642,
    "architecture_maturity": 54.251,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.402,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.45,
        "rotation_up": 25.67,
        "upward_expansion": 17.94,
        "deceleration": 66.32,
        "rotation_down": 49.8,
        "downward_expansion": 72.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        78.002,
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        80.311476,
        82.896602
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 81.68,
    "trend_reference": 86.164,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.05204,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 59.074808,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382654,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.66445,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.123981,
    "excess_performance": -0.249606,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05204,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008215,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.382654,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.218563,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106644,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.133995,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123981,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.654262,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 41302761,
      "relative_activity": 1.280897,
      "balance": 0.654262,
      "dry_up": 0.851297,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046319,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.242371,
      "from_high_reference": -0.217625,
      "from_low_reference": 0.307298
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 86.164,
      "fair_value_reference": 59.074808,
      "structural_low": 74.44,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.003836,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006668,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.076676,
        "worst_return": -0.042232,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.037234,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003054,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.040305,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.116031,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105206,
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        "worst_return": 0.113191,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.073975,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 40517726.95,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 82.268235,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 37897216.0,
        "trend": 86.450667,
        "fair_value": 58.530962,
        "relative_strength": -12.708825,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -68.212443,
        "energy": 68.143119,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 76.17,
        "volume": 20117767,
        "typical_volume": 34864297.7,
        "trend": 86.271,
        "fair_value": 58.783526,
        "relative_strength": -13.709804,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.10781,
        "energy": 59.35301,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 81.68,
        "volume": 41302761,
        "typical_volume": 32245174.55,
        "trend": 86.164,
        "fair_value": 59.074808,
        "relative_strength": -10.66445,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.632047,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}