{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edab50b9-74fc-479a-ab38-2c4d1e01384c", "symbol": "600326", "name": "Xizang Tianlu Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.758, "architecture_energy": 51.0, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.743, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 21.04, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.69, "downward_expansion": 73.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.867333, 6.769636, 7.350905, 8.008387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.6, "trend_reference": 8.95, "distance_from_trend": -0.150838, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.428496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.709681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296296, "excess_performance": -0.253092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150838, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067595, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.811448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331034284, "relative_activity": 2.984063, "balance": 0.811448, "dry_up": 2.057986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084312, "annualized_volatility": 0.382583, "from_high_reference": -0.606013, "from_low_reference": 0.256198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.95, "fair_value_reference": 7.428496, "structural_low": 6.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.004193, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.013983, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.186944, "worst_return": -0.18136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.014801, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042783, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.557987, "worst_return": -0.314499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025039, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.046193, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.541126, "worst_return": -0.417044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.698885, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.199565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031423, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.31097, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.830769, "volume": 80846550, "typical_volume": 241057281.1, "trend": 4.422307, "fair_value": 4.924965, "relative_strength": 13.403048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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72.161692, "activity_lines": [ 6.320667, 6.649273, 7.51481, 8.248989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.94, "volume": 335969947, "typical_volume": 101750445.75, "trend": 9.064333, "fair_value": 7.410498, "relative_strength": -33.65331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.358481, "energy": 66.084435, "activity_lines": [ 6.498667, 6.636364, 7.39219, 8.10286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.6, "volume": 331034284, "typical_volume": 110934098.45, "trend": 8.95, "fair_value": 7.428496, "relative_strength": -27.709681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.757582, "energy": 50.99982, "activity_lines": [ 6.867333, 6.769636, 7.350905, 8.008387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }