{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edb6df15-6e93-4d89-8c35-54229c84d765", "symbol": "5AU", "name": "AP Oil International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.803, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.697, "architecture_energy": 13.381, "architecture_maturity": 2.807, "architecture_confidence": 37.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.17, "rotation_up": 46.94, "upward_expansion": 38.74, "deceleration": 32.03, "rotation_down": 24.23, "downward_expansion": 18.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.131964, 0.131646, 0.131901 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.134, "trend_reference": 0.132662, "distance_from_trend": 0.010083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.118872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.305952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027442, "excess_performance": -0.182277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010083, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4300, "relative_activity": 0.018175, "balance": 0.26699, "dry_up": 0.021661, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.242405, "from_high_reference": -0.17217, "from_low_reference": 0.13997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.132662, "fair_value_reference": 0.118872, "structural_low": 0.117547, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.00695, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00143, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.093758, "worst_return": -0.044688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022392, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.027844, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.099293, "worst_return": -0.078786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02926, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.033113, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.071578, "worst_return": -0.079514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.124365, "volume": 100300, "typical_volume": 25875.0, "trend": 0.13261, "fair_value": 0.137271, "relative_strength": -5.981011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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0.130586, 0.131629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.129, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 286875.0, "trend": 0.132456, "fair_value": 0.118733, "relative_strength": -13.957823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.290258, "energy": 59.713254, "activity_lines": [ 0.1272, 0.128655, 0.130317, 0.1314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.139, "volume": 81500, "typical_volume": 287840.0, "trend": 0.132625, "fair_value": 0.118793, "relative_strength": -10.674594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.263503, "energy": 7.828125, "activity_lines": [ 0.131067, 0.130327, 0.131056, 0.131822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.138, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 274350.0, "trend": 0.132793, "fair_value": 0.118823, "relative_strength": -11.563477, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.289567, "energy": 19.028595, "activity_lines": [ 0.134, 0.131673, 0.131694, 0.132168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 16000, "typical_volume": 247835.0, "trend": 0.132694, "fair_value": 0.118831, "relative_strength": -17.280866, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.268918, "energy": 18.006051, "activity_lines": [ 0.133533, 0.131491, 0.131565, 0.131988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 237385.0, "trend": 0.13266, "fair_value": 0.118839, "relative_strength": -17.314647, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.023806, "energy": 17.187118, "activity_lines": [ 0.132733, 0.131382, 0.131431, 0.131814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.134, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 236595.0, "trend": 0.132662, "fair_value": 0.118872, "relative_strength": -15.305952, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.697385, "energy": 13.380755, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.131964, 0.131646, 0.131901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }