{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "edba81a5-6c37-4c46-8c69-49730ef68d56",
    "symbol": "SET",
    "name": "Stoneweg Europe Stapled Trust",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 46.723,
    "architecture_energy": 27.59,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.037,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.268,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.4,
        "rotation_up": 49.22,
        "upward_expansion": 75.77,
        "deceleration": 56.32,
        "rotation_down": 21.01,
        "downward_expansion": 4.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.574,
        1.571818,
        1.561,
        1.554335
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 1.55,
    "trend_reference": 1.549279,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.000465,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.275805,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214919,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.769844,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.03795,
    "excess_performance": -0.116885,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000465,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016537,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.214919,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060449,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.137698,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.11681,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03795,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.980959,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1292700,
      "relative_activity": 1.270024,
      "balance": 0.980959,
      "dry_up": 1.096546,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031266,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.142338,
      "from_high_reference": -0.051528,
      "from_low_reference": 0.120971
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.549279,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.275805,
      "structural_low": 1.45,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.47619,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.47619,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011214,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.129771,
        "worst_return": -0.070175,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.038118,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.030113,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.08397,
        "worst_return": -0.060573,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.044688,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064631,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.291901,
        "worst_return": -0.045946,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.135434,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.148093,
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        "best_return": 0.232543,
        "worst_return": -0.148138,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
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        "return": 0.048322,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "return": -0.0625,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -4.904028,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 20.968072,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 1.542054,
        "fair_value": 1.258023,
        "relative_strength": -5.813637,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1110775.0,
        "trend": 1.544297,
        "fair_value": 1.261461,
        "relative_strength": -10.017935,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 36.669595,
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          1.563333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.61,
        "volume": 1795400,
        "typical_volume": 1135820.0,
        "trend": 1.546934,
        "fair_value": 1.26524,
        "relative_strength": -8.211683,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.027699,
        "energy": 51.282558,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.580667,
          1.568545,
          1.554143,
          1.550227
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.57,
        "volume": 741100,
        "typical_volume": 1047845.0,
        "trend": 1.548237,
        "fair_value": 1.268637,
        "relative_strength": -11.534292,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.198157,
        "energy": 50.179084,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.58,
          1.570545,
          1.556381,
          1.551715
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.59,
        "volume": 635300,
        "typical_volume": 1031505.0,
        "trend": 1.551147,
        "fair_value": 1.272328,
        "relative_strength": -10.751345,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.448446,
        "energy": 50.845733,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.585333,
          1.575455,
          1.560667,
          1.554409
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.55,
        "volume": 1292700,
        "typical_volume": 1017855.0,
        "trend": 1.549279,
        "fair_value": 1.275805,
        "relative_strength": -13.769844,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.722694,
        "energy": 27.589602,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.574,
          1.571818,
          1.561,
          1.554335
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}