{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edbaaa88-7857-43cb-a621-1a757087282a", "symbol": "LYFT", "name": "Lyft, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.487, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.083, "architecture_energy": 64.866, "architecture_maturity": 22.019, "architecture_confidence": 65.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.91, "rotation_up": 71.82, "upward_expansion": 87.52, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 12.96, "downward_expansion": 11.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.816667, 13.482727, 12.888486, 12.603905 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.8, "trend_reference": 12.593133, "distance_from_trend": 0.175244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.245417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.88583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078717, "excess_performance": -0.09553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168744, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109962, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078717, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.493966, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066008, "annualized_volatility": 0.452819, "from_high_reference": -0.31529, "from_low_reference": 0.402844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.593133, "fair_value_reference": 13.245417, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.083911, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.0411, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.292286, "worst_return": -0.418782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018317, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031932, "worst_return": -0.520552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018247, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10318, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.197862, "worst_return": -0.359168, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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-0.14344, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092251, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.304, "volume": 1077, "typical_volume": 645.05, "trend": 9.6446, "fair_value": 27.516545, "relative_strength": -6.05747, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.260907, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -2.920157, "energy": 7.143226, "activity_lines": [ 12.313333, 12.120909, 11.960419, 12.319135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 13.099733, "fair_value": 13.138724, "relative_strength": -25.671334, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.151966, "energy": 20.998768, "activity_lines": [ 12.753333, 12.386364, 12.12179, 12.331531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.0, "volume": 6422, "typical_volume": 321.1, "trend": 12.982667, "fair_value": 13.163763, "relative_strength": -21.550241, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.554781, "energy": 53.872265, "activity_lines": [ 13.26, 12.714545, 12.320019, 12.389613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 321.1, "trend": 12.888733, "fair_value": 13.185224, "relative_strength": -22.27037, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.464753, "energy": 59.670839, "activity_lines": [ 13.48, 12.927273, 12.464962, 12.426215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 321.1, "trend": 12.760867, "fair_value": 13.195276, "relative_strength": -26.988624, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.236452, "energy": 54.866277, "activity_lines": [ 13.346667, 12.99, 12.534676, 12.423716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 356.3, "trend": 12.6462, "fair_value": 13.214814, "relative_strength": -23.583429, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.687631, "energy": 45.466093, "activity_lines": [ 13.37, 13.122727, 12.649629, 12.464951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 356.3, "trend": 12.593133, "fair_value": 13.245417, "relative_strength": -17.88583, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.083362, "energy": 64.865957, "activity_lines": [ 13.816667, 13.482727, 12.888486, 12.603905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }