{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edbadd7b-7843-46e3-92a3-a3025310cf35", "symbol": "QQXT", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100 EX-TECHNOLOGY SECTOR INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.34, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.738, "architecture_energy": 52.846, "architecture_maturity": 12.736, "architecture_confidence": 54.792, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.33, "rotation_up": 67.74, "upward_expansion": 59.37, "deceleration": 22.37, "rotation_down": 20.82, "downward_expansion": 20.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.321713, 99.544121, 98.87931, 98.872756 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 102.5499, "trend_reference": 99.159141, "distance_from_trend": 0.034195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.286924, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111207, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.338279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020989, "excess_performance": -0.166465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.516899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14604, "relative_activity": 0.574693, "balance": 1.516899, "dry_up": 0.726797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019734, "annualized_volatility": 0.113713, "from_high_reference": -0.012471, "from_low_reference": 0.079484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.159141, "fair_value_reference": 92.286924, "structural_low": 95.9388, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.006946, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007116, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.050391, "worst_return": -0.112146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006737, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.030278, "worst_return": -0.071949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006384, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.041206, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057106, "worst_return": -0.111334, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.899267, "energy": 14.41321, "activity_lines": [ 98.903999, 98.469544, 98.286862, 98.643806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.189, "volume": 13521, "typical_volume": 30526.45, "trend": 99.061517, "fair_value": 92.051509, "relative_strength": -8.913686, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.478984, "energy": 15.484421, "activity_lines": [ 98.800127, 98.479801, 98.27647, 98.58347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.1017, "volume": 12414, "typical_volume": 28098.6, "trend": 99.10615, "fair_value": 92.161245, "relative_strength": -7.31054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.384152, "energy": 22.433351, "activity_lines": [ 99.229827, 98.804077, 98.464979, 98.650578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.5499, "volume": 14604, "typical_volume": 25411.85, "trend": 99.159141, "fair_value": 92.286924, "relative_strength": -9.338279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.737852, "energy": 52.846385, "activity_lines": [ 100.321713, 99.544121, 98.87931, 98.872756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }