{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edbd9674-fac3-48f8-a94b-62f8f7cdbf37", "symbol": "600495", "name": "Jinxi Axle Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.867, "architecture_energy": 29.245, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.278, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.3, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 17.63, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 62.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.790667, 3.728841, 3.861315, 4.034937 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.8, "trend_reference": 4.281899, "distance_from_trend": -0.112543, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.138881, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.857128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218107, "excess_performance": -0.174903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081877, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.397123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51176528, "relative_activity": 0.667256, "balance": 1.397123, "dry_up": 0.744633, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061587, "annualized_volatility": 0.222848, "from_high_reference": -0.40625, "from_low_reference": 0.123295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.281899, "fair_value_reference": 4.138881, "structural_low": 3.382905, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.019309, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.014129, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.141243, "worst_return": -0.09523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022181, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008772, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.265372, "worst_return": -0.144165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105515, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047785, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.301408, "worst_return": -0.245968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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3.713949, 3.943938, 4.139069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.78, "volume": 60625218, "typical_volume": 78340188.95, "trend": 4.346899, "fair_value": 4.147345, "relative_strength": -16.709981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.867196, "energy": 53.535799, "activity_lines": [ 3.694417, 3.707822, 3.90881, 4.100193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.85, "volume": 42864489, "typical_volume": 77790573.35, "trend": 4.314566, "fair_value": 4.142128, "relative_strength": -15.032565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.993467, "energy": 38.399327, "activity_lines": [ 3.764787, 3.720786, 3.885253, 4.068135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.8, "volume": 51176528, "typical_volume": 76697038.75, "trend": 4.281899, "fair_value": 4.138881, "relative_strength": -17.857128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.867332, "energy": 29.245283, "activity_lines": [ 3.790667, 3.728841, 3.861315, 4.034937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }