{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edbf5754-7683-4669-bd79-adfc1ba008bd", "symbol": "CHCO", "name": "City Holding Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.153, "architecture_energy": 89.844, "architecture_maturity": 41.665, "architecture_confidence": 74.802, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 84.83, "upward_expansion": 99.22, "deceleration": 39.12, "rotation_down": 8.92, "downward_expansion": 21.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 141.828401, 137.857732, 132.703497, 129.669126 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 144.94, "trend_reference": 126.494929, "distance_from_trend": 0.145817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.815837, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296239, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.048088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.141605, "excess_performance": -0.045849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020481, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.921113, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 506310, "relative_activity": 0.850413, "balance": 1.921113, "dry_up": 1.187834, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039665, "annualized_volatility": 0.164724, "from_high_reference": -0.017855, "from_low_reference": 0.289133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.494929, "fair_value_reference": 111.815837, "structural_low": 112.432139, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.002915, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022763, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.161638, "worst_return": -0.089851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001348, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045185, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.180791, "worst_return": -0.112786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -5.9e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086417, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.12698, "worst_return": -0.064352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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891283, "typical_volume": 633221.9, "trend": 124.78213, "fair_value": 111.105966, "relative_strength": 3.789146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.818258, "energy": 79.033564, "activity_lines": [ 135.865407, 132.998102, 129.269074, 127.114942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.11, "volume": 661463, "typical_volume": 628135.7, "trend": 125.678016, "fair_value": 111.457852, "relative_strength": 7.315674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.288093, "energy": 88.179238, "activity_lines": [ 139.27364, 135.629508, 131.059417, 128.426418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.94, "volume": 506310, "typical_volume": 595369.8, "trend": 126.494929, "fair_value": 111.815837, "relative_strength": 2.048088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.153395, "energy": 89.844011, "activity_lines": [ 141.828401, 137.857732, 132.703497, 129.669126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }