{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edcce9d5-a377-40a0-a14c-f0b1d38d5615", "symbol": "VML", "name": "Vital Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.729, "architecture_energy": 50.817, "architecture_maturity": 99.6, "architecture_confidence": 83.476, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.93, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 7.96, "deceleration": 59.44, "rotation_down": 46.31, "downward_expansion": 76.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.103, 0.103909, 0.11375, 0.123661 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.139417, "distance_from_trend": -0.282726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.198071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.495129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.74085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.393939, "excess_performance": -0.457645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.282726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.495129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.437409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.393939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111589, "relative_activity": 0.616653, "balance": 0.940558, "dry_up": 0.859189, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141538, "annualized_volatility": 0.530624, "from_high_reference": -0.756098, "from_low_reference": 0.075269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.139417, "fair_value_reference": 0.198071, "structural_low": 0.096, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.037444, "positive_rate": 0.275, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.036258, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.842105, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.195122, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.185076, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.473684, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.4, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.500453, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.736842, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 0.205699, "relative_strength": -40.678443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.781033, "energy": 67.317864, "activity_lines": [ 0.104333, 0.108273, 0.120619, 0.131667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.105, "volume": 255074, "typical_volume": 227070.65, "trend": 0.144583, "fair_value": 0.203167, "relative_strength": -37.566136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.966513, "energy": 53.221075, "activity_lines": [ 0.104333, 0.106545, 0.118202, 0.128952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.105, "volume": 151452, "typical_volume": 198997.65, "trend": 0.142417, "fair_value": 0.200635, "relative_strength": -39.040098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.350977, "energy": 48.812179, "activity_lines": [ 0.104667, 0.105364, 0.116071, 0.126398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 111589, "typical_volume": 180959.25, "trend": 0.139417, "fair_value": 0.198071, "relative_strength": -43.74085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.729293, "energy": 50.816898, "activity_lines": [ 0.103, 0.103909, 0.11375, 0.123661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }