{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edd1b645-93d9-49f9-8fdd-66a5acc010b0", "symbol": "FEDU", "name": "Four Seasons Education Cayman", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.885, "architecture_energy": 79.241, "architecture_maturity": 18.612, "architecture_confidence": 74.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.85, "rotation_up": 8.51, "upward_expansion": 17.49, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 81.97, "downward_expansion": 95.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.511293, 9.146998, 9.700742, 9.879015 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 8.2, "trend_reference": 10.032403, "distance_from_trend": -0.182648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.390029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.207004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090909, "excess_performance": -0.216534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182648, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143975, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.345542, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36356, "relative_activity": 8.252131, "balance": 2.345542, "dry_up": 2.614938, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119627, "annualized_volatility": 0.494519, "from_high_reference": -0.526012, "from_low_reference": 0.227545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.032403, "fair_value_reference": 10.390029, "structural_low": 7.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.007093, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.008636, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.507465, "worst_return": -0.432137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.15991, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.009838, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.939473, "worst_return": -0.387097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18871, "worst_return": -0.234459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 4.676078, "activity_lines": [ 10.524067, 10.4592, 10.429243, 10.421488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.64, "volume": 186, "typical_volume": 6555.1, "trend": 10.54584, "fair_value": 10.38664, "relative_strength": -28.354558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.190222, "energy": 20.823287, "activity_lines": [ 10.214, 10.327273, 10.361048, 10.355068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.035, "volume": 1118, "typical_volume": 4747.05, "trend": 10.431007, "fair_value": 10.395347, "relative_strength": -25.419455, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.129954, "energy": 25.58549, "activity_lines": [ 10.120333, 10.266073, 10.333067, 10.322111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.035, "volume": 198, "typical_volume": 2916.3, "trend": 10.39884, "fair_value": 10.399818, "relative_strength": -23.246201, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.785075, "energy": 32.85541, "activity_lines": [ 10.041, 10.211873, 10.304919, 10.296562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.12, "volume": 6288, "typical_volume": 2752.65, "trend": 10.28284, "fair_value": 10.395402, "relative_strength": -36.668046, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.86808, "energy": 70.644296, "activity_lines": [ 9.375, 9.817945, 10.0947, 10.14954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0511, "volume": 3240, "typical_volume": 2684.05, "trend": 10.161403, "fair_value": 10.391109, "relative_strength": -37.056703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.387497, "energy": 78.759492, "activity_lines": [ 8.8367, 9.451218, 9.885395, 10.005557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.2, "volume": 36356, "typical_volume": 4405.65, "trend": 10.032403, "fair_value": 10.390029, "relative_strength": -37.207004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.885086, "energy": 79.241353, "activity_lines": [ 8.511293, 9.146998, 9.700742, 9.879015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }