{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edd1e9b2-9d19-4ee6-aa7f-c45e10fba476", "symbol": "A1IV34", "name": "Apartment Investment and Management Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.874, "architecture_energy": 50.486, "architecture_maturity": 13.117, "architecture_confidence": 83.348, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.59, "rotation_up": 11.68, "upward_expansion": 9.57, "deceleration": 40.12, "rotation_down": 65.29, "downward_expansion": 85.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.702, 14.173273, 14.837137, 14.995966 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.55, "trend_reference": 15.292889, "distance_from_trend": -0.113967, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.863998, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.415044, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165388, "excess_performance": -0.10834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113967, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281701, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126295, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.517008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3477, "relative_activity": 0.378806, "balance": 2.517008, "dry_up": 0.34092, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158615, "annualized_volatility": 0.458417, "from_high_reference": -0.406408, "from_low_reference": 0.032774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.292889, "fair_value_reference": 18.863998, "structural_low": 13.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008634, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.003479, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.27178, "worst_return": -0.303571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054429, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.069471, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.607113, "worst_return": -0.254932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076511, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.24681, "worst_return": -0.294745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045555, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196785, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-15", 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16.370667, 15.967213, 15.568606, 15.683748 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 15.01, "volume": 206, "typical_volume": 14746.35, "trend": 15.835896, "fair_value": 19.046704, "relative_strength": -19.763034, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.589767, "energy": 8.004308, "activity_lines": [ 15.824, 15.873693, 15.51793, 15.627999 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.32, "volume": 237, "typical_volume": 14747.6, "trend": 15.805569, "fair_value": 19.029122, "relative_strength": -19.277356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.164483, "energy": 16.017345, "activity_lines": [ 15.396, 15.819068, 15.502962, 15.594716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.34, "volume": 32, "typical_volume": 14080.65, "trend": 15.786447, "fair_value": 19.008884, "relative_strength": -18.592157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.845596, "energy": 24.012651, "activity_lines": [ 15.19, 15.754981, 15.494256, 15.564679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.49, "volume": 1381, "typical_volume": 12724.15, "trend": 15.723535, "fair_value": 18.980927, "relative_strength": -23.53894, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.901024, "energy": 26.182876, "activity_lines": [ 14.960667, 15.522637, 15.408334, 15.481037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.98, "volume": 3772, "typical_volume": 9702.25, "trend": 15.639934, "fair_value": 18.948898, "relative_strength": -23.209219, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.963271, "energy": 40.041842, "activity_lines": [ 14.635333, 15.196182, 15.280569, 15.368551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.51, "volume": 4387, "typical_volume": 9611.7, "trend": 15.502727, "fair_value": 18.920633, "relative_strength": -24.654326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.22994, "energy": 47.811343, "activity_lines": [ 14.196, 14.790909, 15.1164, 15.231136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.7, "volume": 881, "typical_volume": 9554.95, "trend": 15.392403, "fair_value": 18.893816, "relative_strength": -24.038582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.644345, "energy": 48.205035, "activity_lines": [ 13.92, 14.451636, 14.979298, 15.114831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.55, "volume": 3477, "typical_volume": 9178.85, "trend": 15.292889, "fair_value": 18.863998, "relative_strength": -21.415044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.873945, "energy": 50.486461, "activity_lines": [ 13.702, 14.173273, 14.837137, 14.995966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }