{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edd5127a-5d9d-4f8f-8e8a-e4af8125279f", "symbol": "PUR", "name": "Pursuit Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.225, "architecture_energy": 29.646, "architecture_maturity": 38.861, "architecture_confidence": 66.269, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.86, "rotation_up": 21.87, "upward_expansion": 9.96, "deceleration": 62.23, "rotation_down": 42.84, "downward_expansion": 68.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.070933, 0.070145, 0.075286, 0.08009 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.079, "trend_reference": 0.087667, "distance_from_trend": -0.098859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.164917, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.52097, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.423105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159574, "excess_performance": -0.22328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.52097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173914, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1879864, "relative_activity": 1.08293, "balance": 1.173914, "dry_up": 0.767666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17332, "annualized_volatility": 0.878596, "from_high_reference": -0.435714, "from_low_reference": 0.316667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.087667, "fair_value_reference": 0.164917, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.086334, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": -0.07621, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.789474, "worst_return": -0.380282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.192308, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.219707, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.521277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.340476, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.338021, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.923077, "worst_return": -0.644068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.366667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.276596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.338235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"energy": 46.878169, "activity_lines": [ 0.071133, 0.0742, 0.080171, 0.085314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.068, "volume": 733604, "typical_volume": 1853847.8, "trend": 0.090067, "fair_value": 0.176878, "relative_strength": -20.510591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.515638, "energy": 40.594311, "activity_lines": [ 0.070867, 0.0722, 0.078533, 0.083841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.065, "volume": 1513634, "typical_volume": 1860227.0, "trend": 0.089, "fair_value": 0.172808, "relative_strength": -23.74034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.763294, "energy": 37.509387, "activity_lines": [ 0.0694, 0.069945, 0.076833, 0.082224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.065, "volume": 1203281, "typical_volume": 1722079.2, "trend": 0.088067, "fair_value": 0.168577, "relative_strength": -25.421724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.613757, "energy": 39.381834, "activity_lines": [ 0.068, 0.068509, 0.075324, 0.080675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.079, "volume": 1879864, "typical_volume": 1735905.75, "trend": 0.087667, "fair_value": 0.164917, "relative_strength": -12.423105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.22541, "energy": 29.645915, "activity_lines": [ 0.070933, 0.070145, 0.075286, 0.08009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }