{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edd7e28b-6f0b-481e-a482-5b7d90cd9d30", "symbol": "688595", "name": "Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.257, "architecture_energy": 62.049, "architecture_maturity": 16.287, "architecture_confidence": 74.316, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.18, "rotation_up": 13.48, "upward_expansion": 16.07, "deceleration": 34.89, "rotation_down": 70.42, "downward_expansion": 82.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.37, 32.080727, 33.808381, 34.151935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.68, "trend_reference": 34.915333, "distance_from_trend": -0.178584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.206667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.534929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283, "excess_performance": -0.239796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010291, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161567, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18319411, "relative_activity": 0.832038, "balance": 1.208059, "dry_up": 1.246228, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200381, "annualized_volatility": 0.781808, "from_high_reference": -0.371053, "from_low_reference": 0.15552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.915333, "fair_value_reference": 34.206667, "structural_low": 24.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.051681, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.02123, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.519037, "worst_return": -0.15574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.186497, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.163547, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.518838, "worst_return": -0.206012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099909, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.069235, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.511891, "worst_return": -0.24536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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[ 39.176, 37.781455, 36.107381, 35.859699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.459999, "volume": 52967815, "typical_volume": 19701472.4, "trend": 35.599333, "fair_value": 34.355192, "relative_strength": 10.171819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.044292, "energy": 57.3231, "activity_lines": [ 39.744, 38.430182, 36.594619, 36.187527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 43782847, "typical_volume": 21173535.3, "trend": 35.437333, "fair_value": 34.331603, "relative_strength": -17.713649, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.563665, "energy": 5.65901, "activity_lines": [ 36.222666, 36.755272, 35.917714, 35.716602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.15, "volume": 26281549, "typical_volume": 21397015.05, "trend": 35.252333, "fair_value": 34.28282, "relative_strength": -24.386424, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.084141, "energy": 38.674656, "activity_lines": [ 32.356666, 34.824181, 35.083857, 35.117419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.66, "volume": 21371549, "typical_volume": 21762509.25, "trend": 35.052666, "fair_value": 34.230385, "relative_strength": -22.68925, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.656797, "energy": 56.419719, "activity_lines": [ 29.584, 33.180909, 34.334, 34.563075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.68, "volume": 18319411, "typical_volume": 22017518.3, "trend": 34.915333, "fair_value": 34.206667, "relative_strength": -18.534929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.257479, "energy": 62.04868, "activity_lines": [ 28.37, 32.080727, 33.808381, 34.151935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }