{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edda39fb-bf4f-49e5-9fd9-56bcca0cacbe", "symbol": "002586", "name": "Zhejiang Reclaim Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.001, "architecture_energy": 49.587, "architecture_maturity": 30.25, "architecture_confidence": 95.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.96, "rotation_up": 21.09, "upward_expansion": 7.44, "deceleration": 53.05, "rotation_down": 54.26, "downward_expansion": 78.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.628667, 3.684727, 3.938905, 4.155269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.76, "trend_reference": 4.381667, "distance_from_trend": -0.141879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.077244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.221873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.004206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235772, "excess_performance": -0.243172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.221873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352973, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.373228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25255200, "relative_activity": 0.976336, "balance": 0.373228, "dry_up": 0.733832, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1027, "annualized_volatility": 0.431078, "from_high_reference": -0.28381, "from_low_reference": 0.257525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.381667, "fair_value_reference": 3.077244, "structural_low": 3.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.009494, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.035545, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.120513, "worst_return": -0.153465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083104, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01761, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.377863, "worst_return": -0.212871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0293, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.717557, "worst_return": -0.220513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030612, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101307, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.169054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", 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29120460.5, "trend": 4.434, "fair_value": 3.06859, "relative_strength": -14.593367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.321656, "energy": 51.559965, "activity_lines": [ 3.708667, 3.767818, 4.068571, 4.26043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.45, "volume": 14230800, "typical_volume": 27226205.4, "trend": 4.406, "fair_value": 3.071731, "relative_strength": -15.932738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.325602, "energy": 57.210249, "activity_lines": [ 3.615333, 3.691091, 3.985143, 4.196946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.76, "volume": 25255200, "typical_volume": 25867312.7, "trend": 4.381667, "fair_value": 3.077244, "relative_strength": -13.004206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.001043, "energy": 49.587427, "activity_lines": [ 3.628667, 3.684727, 3.938905, 4.155269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }