{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "eddca1a0-8542-4cfc-a21f-c0d68fa1d525",
    "symbol": "BAWAT",
    "name": "Bawat Water Technologies AB",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 52.807,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 27.59,
    "architecture_energy": 14.598,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.679,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.42,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.16,
        "rotation_up": 33.5,
        "upward_expansion": 57.96,
        "deceleration": 79.5,
        "rotation_down": 25.13,
        "downward_expansion": 19.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.114667,
        1.124,
        1.106,
        1.082258
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 1.05,
    "trend_reference": 1.071333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.019913,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.207276,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130273,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.11002,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.117647,
    "excess_performance": -0.179141,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019913,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004375,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.130273,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046667,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1311,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.187066,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.117647,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.279063,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 25627,
      "relative_activity": 1.823966,
      "balance": 3.279063,
      "dry_up": 1.320377,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.110623,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.619423,
      "from_high_reference": -0.210526,
      "from_low_reference": 0.5
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.071333,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.207276,
      "structural_low": 0.805,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.047336,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.077409,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.212121,
        "worst_return": -0.180672,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.111111,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.182518,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.131313,
        "worst_return": -0.411765,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.145299,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.315291,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.142857,
        "worst_return": -0.166667,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.386447,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.60628,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.285714,
        "worst_return": -0.487179,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.467005,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.191919,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.180672,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.187817,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.10828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.338462,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.067227,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.089286,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.074257,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
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        "return": 0.219512,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
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        "return": 0.026316,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": -0.110169,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": null,
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -22.667199,
        "energy": 20.86595,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.049333,
          1.000727,
          1.01619,
          1.040333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 1.0,
        "volume": 9378,
        "typical_volume": 20115.05,
        "trend": 1.068333,
        "fair_value": 1.237949,
        "relative_strength": -9.293313,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.503234,
        "energy": 18.320926,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.038667,
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          1.011905,
          1.036043
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 1.14,
        "volume": 88109,
        "typical_volume": 23014.5,
        "trend": 1.066667,
        "fair_value": 1.238205,
        "relative_strength": 3.495885,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.880516,
        "energy": 18.355144,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.069333,
          1.035273,
          1.021095,
          1.040667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 1.17,
        "volume": 326,
        "typical_volume": 20210.45,
        "trend": 1.064667,
        "fair_value": 1.237147,
        "relative_strength": 6.618998,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.183243,
        "energy": 26.481445,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.103333,
          1.067182,
          1.033524,
          1.047333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 1.18,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 19060.45,
        "trend": 1.069667,
        "fair_value": 1.236378,
        "relative_strength": 7.277472,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.977693,
        "energy": 39.775742,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.133333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 17306,
        "typical_volume": 19692.6,
        "trend": 1.070667,
        "fair_value": 1.235385,
        "relative_strength": 1.231864,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 18.263677,
        "energy": 45.965459,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.147333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 1.15,
        "volume": 4020,
        "typical_volume": 18971.8,
        "trend": 1.071667,
        "fair_value": 1.230897,
        "relative_strength": 2.347289,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 28.868988,
        "energy": 48.289233,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.155333,
          1.123818,
          1.064857,
          1.06443
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.08,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 15923.45,
        "trend": 1.070333,
        "fair_value": 1.226282,
        "relative_strength": -7.020606,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 26.516381,
        "energy": 30.416745,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.13,
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          1.068238,
          1.064968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.14,
        "volume": 33346,
        "typical_volume": 16794.05,
        "trend": 1.070667,
        "fair_value": 1.221571,
        "relative_strength": -0.165514,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 26.314499,
        "energy": 19.475097,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.128667,
          1.126,
          1.077857,
          1.069462
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.17,
        "volume": 19443,
        "typical_volume": 15230.25,
        "trend": 1.072,
        "fair_value": 1.218173,
        "relative_strength": 2.824431,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.829533,
        "energy": 31.729889,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.139333,
          1.136182,
          1.090429,
          1.075871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.09,
        "volume": 3249,
        "typical_volume": 13845.6,
        "trend": 1.072,
        "fair_value": 1.214872,
        "relative_strength": -6.10517,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.37174,
        "energy": 19.377286,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.124,
          1.131273,
          1.094571,
          1.077032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.18,
        "volume": 25887,
        "typical_volume": 14292.5,
        "trend": 1.077,
        "fair_value": 1.21109,
        "relative_strength": -0.293635,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.2021,
        "energy": 32.264813,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.142,
          1.141091,
          1.106857,
          1.084
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.05,
        "volume": 25627,
        "typical_volume": 14050.15,
        "trend": 1.071333,
        "fair_value": 1.207276,
        "relative_strength": -13.11002,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.590128,
        "energy": 14.598377,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.114667,
          1.124,
          1.106,
          1.082258
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}