{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eddcb728-753b-4183-af71-0344d33016bd", "symbol": "TELA", "name": "Tela Bio Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.278, "architecture_energy": 10.906, "architecture_maturity": 32.301, "architecture_confidence": 70.19, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.69, "rotation_up": 19.26, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 56.03, "rotation_down": 43.61, "downward_expansion": 62.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.77674, 0.771411, 0.802239, 0.799162 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.8699, "trend_reference": 0.81314, "distance_from_trend": 0.069803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.132457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.722295, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.198826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072891, "excess_performance": -0.114563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.722295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017268, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065354, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072891, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1159882, "relative_activity": 1.524671, "balance": 0.548721, "dry_up": 0.599231, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214463, "annualized_volatility": 0.948705, "from_high_reference": -0.593486, "from_low_reference": 0.735981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.81314, "fair_value_reference": 3.132457, "structural_low": 0.5011, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.04466, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.044617, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.270037, "worst_return": -0.267857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079408, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.145612, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.385787, "worst_return": -0.367532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.320616, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.452264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303103, "worst_return": -0.50057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.362838, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.241891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075179, "worst_return": -0.605282, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-09-03", "end": "2022-08-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.303379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-08-19", "end": "2022-12-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.229117, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.255272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159208, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.652557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038785, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.01, "volume": 400863, "typical_volume": 543569.45, "trend": 10.331333, "fair_value": 11.899288, "relative_strength": -21.848278, "stage": 4, 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"fair_value": 3.241946, "relative_strength": -42.446431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.735082, "energy": 31.938706, "activity_lines": [ 0.737893, 0.772069, 0.799514, 0.802699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7299, "volume": 173146, "typical_volume": 734781.5, "trend": 0.820477, "fair_value": 3.184445, "relative_strength": -37.968545, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.335828, "energy": 27.298254, "activity_lines": [ 0.734793, 0.757556, 0.794186, 0.795973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8699, "volume": 1159882, "typical_volume": 760742.25, "trend": 0.81314, "fair_value": 3.132457, "relative_strength": -28.198826, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.277613, "energy": 10.905958, "activity_lines": [ 0.77674, 0.771411, 0.802239, 0.799162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }