{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ede08adc-3f32-444a-a929-81845b339429", "symbol": "DXUS", "name": "Dynamic Active U.S. Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.62, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.467, "architecture_energy": 35.907, "architecture_maturity": 63.014, "architecture_confidence": 80.517, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.11, "rotation_up": 38.29, "upward_expansion": 62.41, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 21.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.818001, 36.867637, 36.537524, 35.777527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.580002, "trend_reference": 34.951333, "distance_from_trend": 0.075209, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.799108, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.209585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121791, "excess_performance": 0.00137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075209, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025888, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023894, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121791, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.619767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6233, "relative_activity": 0.62399, "balance": 1.619767, "dry_up": 2.197578, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024686, "annualized_volatility": 0.177056, "from_high_reference": -0.006609, "from_low_reference": 0.227302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.951333, "fair_value_reference": 29.799108, "structural_low": 30.620001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032373, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.029255, "worst_return": -0.052541, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.075059, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.075059, "worst_return": -0.075059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.110816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110816, "worst_return": 0.110816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069752, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018127, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 36.369999, "volume": 28945, "typical_volume": 11602.2, "trend": 34.864333, "fair_value": 29.745447, "relative_strength": -3.514111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.479489, "energy": 33.149103, "activity_lines": [ 36.562, 36.707636, 36.340238, 35.602322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.580002, "volume": 6233, "typical_volume": 9988.95, "trend": 34.951333, "fair_value": 29.799108, "relative_strength": -3.209585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.46731, "energy": 35.907413, "activity_lines": [ 36.818001, 36.867637, 36.537524, 35.777527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }