{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ede5095d-be34-4c84-9547-d881f76e6169", "symbol": "FXED", "name": "SOUND ENHANCED FIXED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.036, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.65, "architecture_energy": 6.161, "architecture_maturity": 24.478, "architecture_confidence": 72.229, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.02, "rotation_up": 36.37, "upward_expansion": 38.11, "deceleration": 31.25, "rotation_down": 32.56, "downward_expansion": 20.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.4169, 17.411265, 17.420257, 17.400787 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.52, "trend_reference": 17.415992, "distance_from_trend": 0.005972, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.554095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.53184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002346, "excess_performance": -0.123279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005972, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002346, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.291317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20557, "relative_activity": 0.588261, "balance": 0.291317, "dry_up": 0.634841, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02054, "annualized_volatility": 0.076885, "from_high_reference": -0.026876, "from_low_reference": 0.0402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.415992, "fair_value_reference": 16.554095, "structural_low": 16.842909, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008024, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.002985, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.052904, "worst_return": -0.068612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016369, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.033507, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.074032, "worst_return": -0.020327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058458, "worst_return": 0.022924, "sufficient": false 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003149, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 17.33485, "volume": 16857, "typical_volume": 35485.85, "trend": 17.421351, "fair_value": 16.518886, "relative_strength": -8.016148, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.197846, "energy": 10.221199, "activity_lines": [ 17.407381, 17.403202, 17.40952, 17.400312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.325, "volume": 19879, "typical_volume": 35369.3, "trend": 17.416284, "fair_value": 16.53577, "relative_strength": -8.74479, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.197271, "energy": 15.640608, "activity_lines": [ 17.380122, 17.389173, 17.406174, 17.394096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.52, "volume": 20557, "typical_volume": 34945.35, "trend": 17.415992, "fair_value": 16.554095, "relative_strength": -10.53184, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.650141, "energy": 6.16121, "activity_lines": [ 17.4169, 17.411265, 17.420257, 17.400787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }