{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ede537b0-5d74-44db-97d4-ff6d84c03399", "symbol": "AI", "name": "Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.545, "architecture_energy": 17.955, "architecture_maturity": 57.708, "architecture_confidence": 74.075, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.75, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 55.46, "deceleration": 87.79, "rotation_down": 38.53, "downward_expansion": 21.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.722983, 11.808958, 11.804972, 11.741901 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.7, "trend_reference": 11.645543, "distance_from_trend": 0.004676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.131116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.449369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024987, "excess_performance": -0.095435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 751500, "relative_activity": 1.723169, "balance": 0.790467, "dry_up": 1.618724, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022403, "annualized_volatility": 0.120379, "from_high_reference": -0.040996, "from_low_reference": 0.116406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.645543, "fair_value_reference": 10.131116, "structural_low": 11.029132, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003646, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.019054, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.077864, "worst_return": -0.05311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002653, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037568, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.060674, "worst_return": -0.072817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06385, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078586, "worst_return": -0.071016, "sufficient": true }, { 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67.27445, "energy": 63.644354, "activity_lines": [ 11.972862, 11.871677, 11.796621, 11.707708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.99035, "volume": 443300, "typical_volume": 441295.0, "trend": 11.603769, "fair_value": 10.079904, "relative_strength": -4.286191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.615196, "energy": 60.133704, "activity_lines": [ 11.994889, 11.904638, 11.824883, 11.734213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.831406, "volume": 563100, "typical_volume": 420640.0, "trend": 11.624319, "fair_value": 10.097376, "relative_strength": -5.519662, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.462663, "energy": 49.901972, "activity_lines": [ 11.948178, 11.905875, 11.836325, 11.748899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.45, "volume": 1065900, "typical_volume": 430510.0, "trend": 11.63415, "fair_value": 10.114638, "relative_strength": -7.842574, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.285649, "energy": 6.833024, "activity_lines": [ 11.782418, 11.832625, 11.809629, 11.737653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.7, "volume": 751500, "typical_volume": 436115.0, "trend": 11.645543, "fair_value": 10.131116, "relative_strength": -8.449369, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.544986, "energy": 17.954704, "activity_lines": [ 11.722983, 11.808958, 11.804972, 11.741901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }