{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edeaf6a3-773d-40c6-a31a-92a23dc8198e", "symbol": "T1AL34", "name": "TAL Education Group", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.972, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.211, "architecture_energy": 73.243, "architecture_maturity": 13.744, "architecture_confidence": 83.738, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.33, "rotation_up": 71.48, "upward_expansion": 52.73, "deceleration": 23.92, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 30.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.872, 5.517091, 5.356476, 5.431355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.26, "trend_reference": 5.580333, "distance_from_trend": 0.121797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.846731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.699714, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041348, "excess_performance": 0.015701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045063, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113282, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036997, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.267195, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.364446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13585, "relative_activity": 1.3388, "balance": 3.364446, "dry_up": 2.409691, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049152, "annualized_volatility": 0.466469, "from_high_reference": -0.130556, "from_low_reference": 0.352052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.580333, "fair_value_reference": 5.846731, "structural_low": 4.63, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078838, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.102935, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.34359, "worst_return": -0.042088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.391691, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.369915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.548718, "worst_return": 0.013468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.476923, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.50341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.997033, "worst_return": -0.026936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.330739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011058, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.39, "volume": 17879, "typical_volume": 99267.1, "trend": 3.258333, "fair_value": 9.565694, "relative_strength": 1.170848, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.204222, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.243181, "energy": 25.191993, "activity_lines": [ 5.149333, 5.030364, 5.19319, 5.361613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.22, "volume": 1967, "typical_volume": 6130.4, "trend": 5.565333, "fair_value": 5.811346, "relative_strength": -15.138704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.071391, "energy": 30.740103, "activity_lines": [ 5.207333, 5.068182, 5.178905, 5.337441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.33, "volume": 80213, "typical_volume": 9831.95, "trend": 5.569, "fair_value": 5.828205, "relative_strength": 1.104973, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.962534, "energy": 46.412331, "activity_lines": [ 5.600667, 5.312, 5.272095, 5.386774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.26, "volume": 13585, "typical_volume": 10147.15, "trend": 5.580333, "fair_value": 5.846731, "relative_strength": 3.699714, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.210912, "energy": 73.242939, "activity_lines": [ 5.872, 5.517091, 5.356476, 5.431355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }