{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eded7e97-0818-46f3-a61e-6f582b9c5159", "symbol": "IYK", "name": "iShares US Consumer Staples ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.615, "architecture_energy": 70.59, "architecture_maturity": 14.516, "architecture_confidence": 59.776, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.65, "rotation_up": 68.54, "upward_expansion": 58.03, "deceleration": 21.01, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 33.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1255.0, 1252.317631, 1244.773456, 1245.283298 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1255.0, "trend_reference": 1246.954028, "distance_from_trend": 0.006453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1903.879422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.34082, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.382425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000764, "excess_performance": 0.055431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.34082, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07062, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122304, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003677, "annualized_volatility": 0.034511, "from_high_reference": -0.098815, "from_low_reference": 0.025739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1246.954028, "fair_value_reference": 1903.879422, "structural_low": 1226.823242, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02421, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 9.7e-05, "worst_return": -0.055195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038317, "worst_return": -0.093005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.123852, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.238383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028742, "worst_return": -0.596279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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1237.962451, 1239.18596, 1242.655438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 69.3, "trend": 1246.826326, "fair_value": 1953.404437, "relative_strength": -4.835865, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.891454, "energy": 51.556333, "activity_lines": [ 1250.321549, 1241.785791, 1240.312581, 1243.186321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 69.3, "trend": 1246.858252, "fair_value": 1941.023183, "relative_strength": -4.486218, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.421626, "energy": 65.515923, "activity_lines": [ 1253.6, 1245.132979, 1241.434641, 1243.713655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 69.3, "trend": 1246.890177, "fair_value": 1928.641929, "relative_strength": -3.61934, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.934931, "energy": 75.510183, "activity_lines": [ 1255.0, 1248.004015, 1242.55214, 1244.238929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 69.3, "trend": 1246.922103, "fair_value": 1916.260676, "relative_strength": -3.877808, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.654873, "energy": 74.713655, "activity_lines": [ 1255.0, 1250.398899, 1243.665078, 1244.762143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 69.3, "trend": 1246.954028, "fair_value": 1903.879422, "relative_strength": -3.382425, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.614529, "energy": 70.589625, "activity_lines": [ 1255.0, 1252.317631, 1244.773456, 1245.283298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }