{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edefed16-2503-4a16-885e-0acc1d453590", "symbol": "2852", "name": "iShares Japan Green REIT ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.858, "architecture_energy": 18.591, "architecture_maturity": 32.709, "architecture_confidence": 65.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.18, "rotation_up": 35.09, "upward_expansion": 27.76, "deceleration": 47.06, "rotation_down": 23.95, "downward_expansion": 47.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 179.466667, 178.441818, 178.160864, 180.133894 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 175.699997, "trend_reference": 183.30013, "distance_from_trend": -0.041463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 167.83088, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.568611, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065768, "excess_performance": -0.275026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026918, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 399590, "relative_activity": 5.076479, "balance": 1.298082, "dry_up": 3.43646, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029202, "annualized_volatility": 0.120418, "from_high_reference": -0.136161, "from_low_reference": 0.034138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 183.30013, "fair_value_reference": 167.83088, "structural_low": 169.899994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01474, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.016733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006142, "worst_return": -0.01969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000947, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033928, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059784, "worst_return": -0.069301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.03183, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14509, "worst_return": -0.04062, "sufficient": false }, { 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184.685797, "fair_value": 167.552848, "relative_strength": -19.712975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.658811, "energy": 24.283971, "activity_lines": [ 178.113333, 176.496362, 178.269793, 180.971046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 181.800003, "volume": 309570, "typical_volume": 59060.0, "trend": 184.327262, "fair_value": 167.650867, "relative_strength": -18.961435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.993725, "energy": 22.432996, "activity_lines": [ 179.733334, 177.561818, 178.366153, 180.784866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 182.5, "volume": 293350, "typical_volume": 61478.0, "trend": 183.962796, "fair_value": 167.770315, "relative_strength": -17.664935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.41415, "energy": 15.993629, "activity_lines": [ 180.946667, 178.683636, 178.57218, 180.666978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.699997, "volume": 399590, "typical_volume": 78714.0, "trend": 183.30013, "fair_value": 167.83088, "relative_strength": -21.568611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.857901, "energy": 18.590714, "activity_lines": [ 179.466667, 178.441818, 178.160864, 180.133894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }