{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edf210b3-0fb1-4c78-820b-bf0d6cb6fc16", "symbol": "RPD", "name": "Rapid7 Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.508, "architecture_energy": 65.46, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.27, "rotation_up": 71.86, "upward_expansion": 85.18, "deceleration": 50.76, "rotation_down": 11.34, "downward_expansion": 11.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.699333, 9.995636, 8.78419, 8.199226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.57, "trend_reference": 8.111667, "distance_from_trend": 0.426341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.700385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.725628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070305, "excess_performance": -0.117148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.426341, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.46089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.07594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10790920, "relative_activity": 0.983213, "balance": 2.07594, "dry_up": 1.10845, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149457, "annualized_volatility": 1.011394, "from_high_reference": -0.468779, "from_low_reference": 1.327968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.111667, "fair_value_reference": 30.700385, "structural_low": 4.97, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018905, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031229, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072521, "worst_return": -0.083998, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061035, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059694, "worst_return": -0.062375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.261507, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.346832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.143143, "worst_return": -0.379872, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.656333, "fair_value": 31.610769, "relative_strength": -27.099408, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.02281, "energy": 56.763814, "activity_lines": [ 9.096, 8.344, 7.459667, 7.608151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.2, "volume": 13744161, "typical_volume": 11183974.0, "trend": 8.546667, "fair_value": 31.395128, "relative_strength": -15.195257, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.900429, "energy": 79.593893, "activity_lines": [ 10.366667, 9.134909, 7.961524, 7.836774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.49, "volume": 12156242, "typical_volume": 11333604.7, "trend": 8.349667, "fair_value": 31.165385, "relative_strength": -31.278084, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.745028, "energy": 69.221724, "activity_lines": [ 10.396667, 9.336727, 8.17681, 7.897634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.65, "volume": 11970316, "typical_volume": 11500852.25, "trend": 8.195667, "fair_value": 30.9525, "relative_strength": -28.953251, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.619287, "energy": 64.231449, "activity_lines": [ 10.296, 9.513273, 8.39581, 7.981527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.57, "volume": 10790920, "typical_volume": 10975154.45, "trend": 8.111667, "fair_value": 30.700385, "relative_strength": -17.725628, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.508419, "energy": 65.460076, "activity_lines": [ 10.699333, 9.995636, 8.78419, 8.199226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }