{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edf68ed8-812d-46f2-8a4d-2c69f328dbb6", "symbol": "ACA", "name": "Cr\u00e9dit Agricole S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.143, "architecture_energy": 96.807, "architecture_maturity": 25.645, "architecture_confidence": 66.03, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.68, "rotation_up": 86.83, "upward_expansion": 97.66, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.28, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.878333, 18.317545, 17.499824, 17.069109 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.555, "trend_reference": 16.705659, "distance_from_trend": 0.170561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.446615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454269, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.62247, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.176959, "excess_performance": 0.002713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170561, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20184, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120953, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.941548, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251, "relative_activity": 0.172455, "balance": 2.941548, "dry_up": 1.731423, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026875, "annualized_volatility": 0.279904, "from_high_reference": -0.003821, "from_low_reference": 0.363967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.705659, "fair_value_reference": 13.446615, "structural_low": 14.594123, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012641, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.003124, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.184606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.06225, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.007022, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.181617, "worst_return": -0.208617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.20174, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.019782, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.262811, "worst_return": -0.194492, "sufficient": true }, { 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[ 17.452666, 17.000316, 16.491533, 16.412204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.459999, "volume": 2704, "typical_volume": 1208.3, "trend": 16.39937, "fair_value": 13.201579, "relative_strength": -10.911026, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.325403, "energy": 79.929551, "activity_lines": [ 17.524999, 17.157948, 16.603623, 16.483194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.785, "volume": 7134, "typical_volume": 1565.0, "trend": 16.445235, "fair_value": 13.25708, "relative_strength": -7.206805, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.61197, "energy": 80.418682, "activity_lines": [ 17.644, 17.333791, 16.746539, 16.572589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.43, "volume": 1024, "typical_volume": 1493.2, "trend": 16.512757, "fair_value": 13.316538, "relative_strength": -4.899342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.039472, "energy": 87.752551, "activity_lines": [ 17.907666, 17.593554, 16.950658, 16.700639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.27, "volume": 1671, "typical_volume": 1478.85, "trend": 16.60095, "fair_value": 13.382136, "relative_strength": -0.387496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.043122, "energy": 95.431235, "activity_lines": [ 18.404, 17.957818, 17.221054, 16.878525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.555, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 1455.45, "trend": 16.705659, "fair_value": 13.446615, "relative_strength": -1.62247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.142778, "energy": 96.80732, "activity_lines": [ 18.878333, 18.317545, 17.499824, 17.069109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }