{ "ticker": { "uuid": "edf7b24f-c807-441e-9576-338bef48dd19", "symbol": "4991", "name": "GCS Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_to_3_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 2 \u2192 3 watch", "confidence": 59.73, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.726, "architecture_energy": 23.502, "architecture_maturity": 10.003, "architecture_confidence": 58.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.84, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 15.86, "deceleration": 62.77, "rotation_down": 54.03, "downward_expansion": 43.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 427.533333, 445.718182, 519.011905, 514.774194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 460.0, "trend_reference": 472.933333, "distance_from_trend": -0.027347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 158.624116, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.899937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.588658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.749049, "excess_performance": 0.307677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254963, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.899937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.590969, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055887, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.930737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.749049, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33421304, "relative_activity": 1.935716, "balance": 0.42032, "dry_up": 1.421911, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.280769, "annualized_volatility": 1.105327, "from_high_reference": -0.486034, "from_low_reference": 2.579767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 472.933333, "fair_value_reference": 158.624116, "structural_low": 250.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069898, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.009667, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.201183, "worst_return": -0.085498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.094767, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.699134, "worst_return": -0.120536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.103253, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.542208, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.924883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164502, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.517976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.515528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.303116, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 32.25, "volume": 100000, "typical_volume": 265300.0, "trend": 34.251666, "fair_value": 43.0729, "relative_strength": -18.649594, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"trend": 452.783333, "fair_value": 151.083411, "relative_strength": 2.151224, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.278952, "energy": 34.104844, "activity_lines": [ 438.166667, 499.490909, 555.554762, 520.997849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 353.0, "volume": 21986014, "typical_volume": 20450449.4, "trend": 456.866667, "fair_value": 153.128603, "relative_strength": -12.716886, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.006709, "energy": 52.920529, "activity_lines": [ 400.933333, 461.1, 536.55, 514.560215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 465.0, "volume": 5924897, "typical_volume": 18988428.9, "trend": 464.816667, "fair_value": 155.891424, "relative_strength": 11.341785, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.7094, "energy": 45.468708, "activity_lines": [ 411.3, 451.454545, 528.109524, 515.084946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 460.0, "volume": 33421304, "typical_volume": 17265599.85, "trend": 472.933333, "fair_value": 158.624116, "relative_strength": 5.588658, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.726127, "energy": 23.502125, "activity_lines": [ 427.533333, 445.718182, 519.011905, 514.774194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }