{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee00f8c5-09df-43a7-ac87-d0d32dce501f", "symbol": "ANIKINDS", "name": "Anik Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.597, "architecture_energy": 29.658, "architecture_maturity": 25.788, "architecture_confidence": 75.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.86, "rotation_up": 11.25, "upward_expansion": 11.48, "deceleration": 50.32, "rotation_down": 57.09, "downward_expansion": 68.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.287334, 43.242728, 43.682476, 43.518624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.0, "trend_reference": 43.983, "distance_from_trend": -0.02235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 68.169616, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.978973, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134112, "excess_performance": -0.090403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17016, "relative_activity": 0.33228, "balance": 0.770764, "dry_up": 0.569207, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090877, "annualized_volatility": 0.415049, "from_high_reference": -0.564997, "from_low_reference": 0.323077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.983, "fair_value_reference": 68.169616, "structural_low": 32.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041958, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.028331, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.491611, "worst_return": -0.142429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.187143, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.150328, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.675158, "worst_return": -0.39083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.380885, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.252971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.245053, "worst_return": -0.512441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.264188, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.103712, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.354947, "worst_return": -0.575063, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.338105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08388, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035432, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.300042, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027781, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.527044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012175, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 36.549999, "volume": 111123, "typical_volume": 343039.3, "trend": 33.243333, "fair_value": 26.563782, "relative_strength": -5.361513, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"fair_value": 68.076795, "relative_strength": -23.964825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.482818, "energy": 8.596097, "activity_lines": [ 44.650666, 44.597272, 44.049952, 44.063613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 20234, "typical_volume": 64153.05, "trend": 44.479667, "fair_value": 68.138975, "relative_strength": -25.500071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.937159, "energy": 20.572866, "activity_lines": [ 43.182, 43.914, 43.826, 43.794774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.330002, "volume": 32224, "typical_volume": 58429.9, "trend": 44.130667, "fair_value": 68.140769, "relative_strength": -24.874033, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.397559, "energy": 30.72467, "activity_lines": [ 42.314001, 43.406546, 43.678095, 43.59157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.0, "volume": 17016, "typical_volume": 51209.85, "trend": 43.983, "fair_value": 68.169616, "relative_strength": -20.978973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.596522, "energy": 29.657593, "activity_lines": [ 42.287334, 43.242728, 43.682476, 43.518624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }