{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee01e172-f775-43b9-97ed-2f703c73a02c", "symbol": "ETHW", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Ethereum ETC", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.111, "architecture_energy": 25.486, "architecture_maturity": 93.501, "architecture_confidence": 73.046, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.77, "rotation_up": 31.02, "upward_expansion": 20.78, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 20.3, "downward_expansion": 54.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.467533, 17.825691, 18.580067, 19.270854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.950001, "trend_reference": 20.6261, "distance_from_trend": -0.081261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.445833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.881601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054014, "excess_performance": -0.170676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255281, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.454615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1804, "relative_activity": 0.124138, "balance": 0.454615, "dry_up": 0.111201, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07195, "annualized_volatility": 0.489263, "from_high_reference": -0.431443, "from_low_reference": 0.23044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.6261, "fair_value_reference": 25.445833, "structural_low": 15.401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021367, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.059595, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.167101, "worst_return": -0.19779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.042577, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034875, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.042577, "worst_return": 0.042577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.169515, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.559999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 26.559999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 26.559999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, 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20.334009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.716999, "volume": 3670, "typical_volume": 18244.95, "trend": 21.8516, "fair_value": 25.654538, "relative_strength": -33.64294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.248466, "energy": 69.330372, "activity_lines": [ 16.891866, 17.432654, 19.083086, 20.048243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.981001, "volume": 1119, "typical_volume": 17527.85, "trend": 21.565633, "fair_value": 25.599544, "relative_strength": -32.463743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.898163, "energy": 55.262703, "activity_lines": [ 17.311267, 17.345964, 18.903467, 19.798527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.42, "volume": 2376, "typical_volume": 16808.55, "trend": 21.2943, "fair_value": 25.547365, "relative_strength": -30.005738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.287693, "energy": 36.07572, "activity_lines": [ 17.786267, 17.421982, 18.771186, 19.595583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.330999, "volume": 1165, "typical_volume": 15995.8, "trend": 21.02, "fair_value": 25.494615, "relative_strength": -30.181326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.601486, "energy": 25.741775, "activity_lines": [ 18.1214, 17.5442, 18.640033, 19.404402 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 1804, "typical_volume": 14532.25, "trend": 20.6261, "fair_value": 25.445833, "relative_strength": -27.881601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.111064, "energy": 25.485999, "activity_lines": [ 18.467533, 17.825691, 18.580067, 19.270854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }