{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee108d1a-f3a3-4cf2-93ef-9af416ddfbff", "symbol": "BRKM3", "name": "Braskem S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.441, "architecture_energy": 72.06, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.294, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 16.05, "upward_expansion": 15.23, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 73.0, "downward_expansion": 93.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.004667, 5.353091, 6.236952, 6.875355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 7.651333, "distance_from_trend": -0.371351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.833654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.652297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.495355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.46317, "excess_performance": -0.406121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.371351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.652297, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129815, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.46317, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138900, "relative_activity": 0.775826, "balance": 0.724426, "dry_up": 0.87427, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214777, "annualized_volatility": 0.62663, "from_high_reference": -0.599167, "from_low_reference": 0.004175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.651333, "fair_value_reference": 13.833654, "structural_low": 4.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.010887, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049533, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.305131, "worst_return": -0.225564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.082157, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.084211, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.268087, "worst_return": -0.24359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.175649, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.274511, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.262887, "worst_return": -0.408436, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.495883, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14268, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", 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7.865667, "fair_value": 14.087756, "relative_strength": -41.006816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.768278, "energy": 80.06118, "activity_lines": [ 5.262667, 5.833091, 6.670762, 7.250968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.0, "volume": 126000, "typical_volume": 180105.0, "trend": 7.766333, "fair_value": 13.962115, "relative_strength": -42.000723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.304521, "energy": 75.050499, "activity_lines": [ 5.149333, 5.58, 6.451571, 7.066086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 138900, "typical_volume": 179035.0, "trend": 7.651333, "fair_value": 13.833654, "relative_strength": -41.495355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.440533, "energy": 72.060247, "activity_lines": [ 5.004667, 5.353091, 6.236952, 6.875355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }