{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee109d98-117f-4042-a2c0-61e64b2fd859", "symbol": "EMPA", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.996, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.211, "architecture_energy": 21.967, "architecture_maturity": 63.385, "architecture_confidence": 91.031, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.37, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 41.6, "deceleration": 87.97, "rotation_down": 42.94, "downward_expansion": 33.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.706133, 17.980291, 18.069923, 17.761703 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.868, "trend_reference": 17.350733, "distance_from_trend": 0.029812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.024503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.55367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085409, "excess_performance": 0.002526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029812, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 922, "relative_activity": 1.070475, "balance": 0.639719, "dry_up": 1.012423, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035861, "annualized_volatility": 0.242762, "from_high_reference": -0.068502, "from_low_reference": 0.316146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.350733, "fair_value_reference": 13.024503, "structural_low": 15.138, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011858, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.013894, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.130077, "worst_return": -0.01633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053695, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.036192, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.197815, "worst_return": -0.005309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011925, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.239206, "worst_return": 0.005054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00067, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.167662, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005497, "active": false }, 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"relative_strength": 4.96766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.15037, "energy": 54.055736, "activity_lines": [ 18.583333, 18.566509, 18.086238, 17.656727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.02, "volume": 1029, "typical_volume": 1148.2, "trend": 17.110267, "fair_value": 12.890977, "relative_strength": -3.498058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.394893, "energy": 18.036435, "activity_lines": [ 18.0464, 18.295272, 18.034638, 17.655466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.622, "volume": 759, "typical_volume": 1109.75, "trend": 17.197733, "fair_value": 12.934285, "relative_strength": -0.123242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.16115, "energy": 25.450636, "activity_lines": [ 17.802533, 18.161418, 18.042057, 17.688482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.747999, "volume": 778, "typical_volume": 1145.55, "trend": 17.283333, "fair_value": 12.9784, "relative_strength": 0.286261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.619745, "energy": 24.477407, "activity_lines": [ 17.704666, 18.057563, 18.054457, 17.723983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.868, "volume": 922, "typical_volume": 861.3, "trend": 17.350733, "fair_value": 13.024503, "relative_strength": -0.55367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.210874, "energy": 21.967172, "activity_lines": [ 17.706133, 17.980291, 18.069923, 17.761703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }