{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee1337ad-1e5e-4325-afea-26cc3fa7e2c5", "symbol": "VALN", "name": "Valneva SE ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.201, "architecture_energy": 58.583, "architecture_maturity": 93.263, "architecture_confidence": 91.48, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 28.95, "upward_expansion": 10.73, "deceleration": 59.61, "rotation_down": 51.75, "downward_expansion": 84.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.051333, 5.099727, 5.326548, 6.010613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.3, "trend_reference": 7.086, "distance_from_trend": -0.252046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.888619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.853501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.441517, "excess_performance": -0.628971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.438535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007194, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.441517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.284192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123674, "relative_activity": 0.368609, "balance": 1.284192, "dry_up": 0.387971, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092042, "annualized_volatility": 0.787349, "from_high_reference": -0.567347, "from_low_reference": 0.115789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.086, "fair_value_reference": 7.888619, "structural_low": 4.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.046533, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.72, "median_excess_return": -0.058341, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.526316, "worst_return": -0.254209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.081708, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.129603, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.234733, "worst_return": -0.41534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107754, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.240976, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.234733, "worst_return": -0.463111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"fair_value": 8.07548, "relative_strength": -46.579038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.054709, "energy": 83.027836, "activity_lines": [ 5.109, 5.288091, 5.62369, 6.465559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.78, "volume": 61885, "typical_volume": 333924.45, "trend": 7.371167, "fair_value": 8.009711, "relative_strength": -47.605224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.502783, "energy": 69.629671, "activity_lines": [ 4.979333, 5.165545, 5.474929, 6.290581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.97, "volume": 55104, "typical_volume": 333343.3, "trend": 7.238333, "fair_value": 7.946089, "relative_strength": -45.358766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.068306, "energy": 63.973168, "activity_lines": [ 4.953, 5.093909, 5.371595, 6.135667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.3, "volume": 123674, "typical_volume": 335515.75, "trend": 7.086, "fair_value": 7.888619, "relative_strength": -43.853501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.201031, "energy": 58.582687, "activity_lines": [ 5.051333, 5.099727, 5.326548, 6.010613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }