{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee1e153a-81f9-49b8-8403-e59afd0103ff", "symbol": "ACQ", "name": "AutoCanada Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.111, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.448, "architecture_energy": 11.306, "architecture_maturity": 32.889, "architecture_confidence": 62.195, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.69, "rotation_up": 33.34, "upward_expansion": 42.66, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 23.76, "downward_expansion": 34.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.092667, 22.935091, 22.563524, 22.510473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.540001, "trend_reference": 23.104334, "distance_from_trend": -0.024425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.810769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.837623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244385, "excess_performance": -0.364806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005688, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 570800, "relative_activity": 2.937574, "balance": 0.571897, "dry_up": 1.379625, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077298, "annualized_volatility": 0.486124, "from_high_reference": -0.364712, "from_low_reference": 0.61 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.104334, "fair_value_reference": 21.810769, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.015353, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006851, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254316, "worst_return": -0.265903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.014429, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.075572, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.401604, "worst_return": -0.218966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112727, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.149907, "worst_return": -0.307972, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.243838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115498, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"trend": 23.189667, "fair_value": 21.784423, "relative_strength": -18.957313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.829555, "energy": 13.405602, "activity_lines": [ 22.702667, 22.320364, 22.030334, 22.514129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.040001, "volume": 76900, "typical_volume": 218175.0, "trend": 23.199334, "fair_value": 21.795897, "relative_strength": -17.643717, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.555983, "energy": 19.129637, "activity_lines": [ 22.882667, 22.481273, 22.147429, 22.504473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.83, "volume": 321300, "typical_volume": 222510.0, "trend": 23.199334, "fair_value": 21.811346, "relative_strength": -14.372991, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.694734, "energy": 32.825729, "activity_lines": [ 23.238, 22.782728, 22.355667, 22.545162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 103300, "typical_volume": 215620.0, "trend": 23.178334, "fair_value": 21.828974, "relative_strength": -15.284101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.264306, "energy": 28.59989, "activity_lines": [ 23.312, 22.944909, 22.504429, 22.551656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.540001, "volume": 570800, "typical_volume": 194310.0, "trend": 23.104334, "fair_value": 21.810769, "relative_strength": -19.837623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.448475, "energy": 11.30577, "activity_lines": [ 23.092667, 22.935091, 22.563524, 22.510473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }