{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee1ecc53-385c-4248-a441-4c4982cb1110", "symbol": "FSF", "name": "CI Global Financial Sector ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.841, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.04, "architecture_energy": 93.015, "architecture_maturity": 16.125, "architecture_confidence": 71.756, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.98, "rotation_up": 82.58, "upward_expansion": 96.97, "deceleration": 42.16, "rotation_down": 10.87, "downward_expansion": 21.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.751333, 38.216645, 37.006607, 36.22301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.209999, "trend_reference": 35.594703, "distance_from_trend": 0.101568, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.686666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.161127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101039, "excess_performance": -0.019382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101568, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021508, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088926, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.111111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.111111, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015695, "annualized_volatility": 0.160641, "from_high_reference": -0.005075, "from_low_reference": 0.234961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.594703, "fair_value_reference": 29.686666, "structural_low": 31.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.005365, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": 0.003641, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.090443, "worst_return": -0.160389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.05104, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.010073, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.123208, "worst_return": -0.170325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079108, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000729, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.216202, "worst_return": -0.145933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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37.571738, 36.713448, 35.695538, 35.376612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 840.0, "trend": 35.392134, "fair_value": 29.349453, "relative_strength": -0.13422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.450028, "energy": 96.514217, "activity_lines": [ 38.050004, 37.185486, 36.051628, 35.592835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.049999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 825.0, "trend": 35.445096, "fair_value": 29.457276, "relative_strength": -1.758162, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.598278, "energy": 88.882286, "activity_lines": [ 38.16, 37.474218, 36.334061, 35.76431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.869999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 805.0, "trend": 35.525058, "fair_value": 29.571283, "relative_strength": 0.960514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.54445, "energy": 93.941197, "activity_lines": [ 38.467333, 37.848572, 36.669752, 35.985272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.209999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 805.0, "trend": 35.594703, "fair_value": 29.686666, "relative_strength": -1.161127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.040433, "energy": 93.014918, "activity_lines": [ 38.751333, 38.216645, 37.006607, 36.22301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }