{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee247290-95e5-4f78-b838-037c9e6d5f54", "symbol": "002255", "name": "Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.773, "architecture_energy": 62.709, "architecture_maturity": 46.85, "architecture_confidence": 92.609, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 19.87, "upward_expansion": 11.37, "deceleration": 53.86, "rotation_down": 60.59, "downward_expansion": 82.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.242667, 8.494727, 9.165888, 9.810443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.54, "trend_reference": 10.762221, "distance_from_trend": -0.206483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.457043, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145226, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.716583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292267, "excess_performance": -0.299667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434973, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539504, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130653218, "relative_activity": 1.60267, "balance": 0.539504, "dry_up": 1.114669, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088092, "annualized_volatility": 0.421381, "from_high_reference": -0.452253, "from_low_reference": 0.144772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.762221, "fair_value_reference": 7.457043, "structural_low": 7.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.055666, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.042553, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.304556, "worst_return": -0.152778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.207372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.130067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.568345, "worst_return": 0.081081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145631, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.120007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.438849, "worst_return": -0.048077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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9.295455, 9.967574, 10.582043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.93, "volume": 64115574, "typical_volume": 100464655.75, "trend": 11.208288, "fair_value": 7.410619, "relative_strength": -25.169351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.075848, "energy": 72.568944, "activity_lines": [ 8.586667, 8.972182, 9.709532, 10.359118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.81, "volume": 85549486, "typical_volume": 94004968.85, "trend": 11.049804, "fair_value": 7.423656, "relative_strength": -26.246538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.295453, "energy": 71.152943, "activity_lines": [ 8.256, 8.688909, 9.464785, 10.139873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.3, "volume": 83162921, "typical_volume": 85338483.6, "trend": 10.896371, "fair_value": 7.440278, "relative_strength": -20.160641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.159307, "energy": 69.221344, "activity_lines": [ 8.192, 8.550909, 9.291668, 9.962467 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.54, "volume": 130653218, "typical_volume": 81522215.15, "trend": 10.762221, "fair_value": 7.457043, "relative_strength": -21.716583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.773048, "energy": 62.708687, "activity_lines": [ 8.242667, 8.494727, 9.165888, 9.810443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }