{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee2634ab-417b-479e-9111-3d8dc7e42aa1", "symbol": "AMP", "name": "Amper, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.974, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.076, "architecture_energy": 20.129, "architecture_maturity": 60.248, "architecture_confidence": 87.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.78, "rotation_up": 23.96, "upward_expansion": 56.05, "deceleration": 88.1, "rotation_down": 38.62, "downward_expansion": 22.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.8547, 4.970191, 4.957074, 4.800356 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.876, "trend_reference": 4.641433, "distance_from_trend": 0.050538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.203562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.522056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.816478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101921, "excess_performance": -0.02251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.522056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008165, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132884, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101921, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.991033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 897547, "relative_activity": 0.359094, "balance": 2.991033, "dry_up": 0.715943, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079581, "annualized_volatility": 0.308501, "from_high_reference": -0.113455, "from_low_reference": 0.590865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.641433, "fair_value_reference": 3.203562, "structural_low": 3.625, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01145, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.020213, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.16478, "worst_return": -0.181992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040499, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316794, "worst_return": -0.290421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.135306, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.278533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183801, "worst_return": -0.342529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045506, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.314906, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.334156, "worst_return": -0.54023, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016575, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"trend": 4.604167, "fair_value": 3.161247, "relative_strength": 12.130328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.63358, "energy": 43.375547, "activity_lines": [ 5.180833, 5.159318, 4.949917, 4.776833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.62, "volume": 1774190, "typical_volume": 2489097.85, "trend": 4.6335, "fair_value": 3.17522, "relative_strength": -1.561933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.596118, "energy": 19.746556, "activity_lines": [ 5.000833, 5.0675, 4.943845, 4.777855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.742, "volume": 2887077, "typical_volume": 2529157.05, "trend": 4.635733, "fair_value": 3.189229, "relative_strength": 0.084995, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.866855, "energy": 17.008204, "activity_lines": [ 4.8935, 5.005682, 4.946107, 4.784855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.876, "volume": 897547, "typical_volume": 2499474.95, "trend": 4.641433, "fair_value": 3.203562, "relative_strength": 0.816478, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.076299, "energy": 20.128681, "activity_lines": [ 4.8547, 4.970191, 4.957074, 4.800356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }